Before the turmoil caused by the deficit debate in the U.S. and the spread of sovereign debt troubles in Europe, consumers were spending more. The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has reported that personal income increased $42.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $32.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, in July 2011. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $88.4 billion, or 0.8 percent.
By comparison, in June, personal income increased $27.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $22.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE decreased $14.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.
The personal savings rate dipped to 5.0 percent in July, from 5.5 percent in June.
The full BEA press release follows:
PERSONAL INCOME AND OUTLAYS: JULY 2011
Personal income increased $42.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased
$32.5 billion, or 0.3 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) increased $88.4 billion, or 0.8 percent. In June, personal income increased
$27.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $22.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE decreased
$14.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.
Real disposable income decreased 0.1 percent in July, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent in June.
Real PCE increased 0.5 percent, compared with a decrease of less than 0.1 percent.
2011
Mar. Apr. May June July
(Percent change from preceding month)
Personal income, current dollars 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.3
Chained (2005) dollars 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.8
Chained (2005) dollars 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
This news release presents revised estimates of wages and salaries, personal taxes, and contributions for
government social insurance for January through March 2011 (first quarter). These estimates reflect
newly available first-quarter wage and salary tabulations from the quarterly census of employment
and wages from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Wages and salaries
Private wage and salary disbursements increased $24.3 billion in July, compared with an increase of
$8.9 billion in June. Goods-producing industries' payrolls increased $3.7 billion, in contrast to a
decrease of $0.3 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $3.6 billion, in contrast to a decrease
of $0.9 billion. Services-producing industries' payrolls increased $20.5 billion, compared with an
increase of $9.2 billion. Government wage and salary disbursements decreased $0.1 billion in July;
government wage and salary disbursements were unchanged in June.
Other personal income
Supplements to wages and salaries increased $3.7 billion in July, compared with an increase of $2.1 billion in June.
Proprietors' income increased $3.2 billion in July, compared with an increase of $0.9 billion in June. Farm
proprietors' income decreased $0.5 billion, compared with a decrease of $0.9 billion. Nonfarm proprietors'
income increased $3.7 billion, compared with an increase of $1.9 billion.
Rental income of persons increased $5.0 billion in July, in contrast to a decrease of $1.2 billion in June.
Personal income receipts on assets (personal interest income plus personal dividend income) increased $7.5 billion,
compared with an increase of $10.5 billion. Personal current transfer receipts increased $2.2 billion, compared
with an increase of $7.6 billion.
Contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in calculating personal income -- increased $3.5 billion
in July, compared with an increase of $1.1 billion in June.
Personal current taxes and disposable personal income
Personal current taxes increased $9.9 billion in July, compared with an increase of $5.1 billion in June.
Disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $32.5 billion,
or 0.3 percent, in July, compared with an increase of $22.6 billion, or 0.2 percent in June.
Personal outlays and personal saving
Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased
$88.4 billion in July, in contrast to a decrease of $16.8 billion in June. PCE increased $88.4 billion,
in contrast to a decrease of $14.3 billion.
Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $582.8 billion in July, compared with $638.6 billion
in June. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 5.0 percent in July,
compared with 5.5 percent in June. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product
accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes
in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Real DPI, real PCE and price index
Real DPI -- DPI adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased 0.1 percent in July, in contrast to an increase of
0.3 percent in June.
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.5 percent in July, in contrast to a decrease of less
than 0.1 percent in June. Purchases of durable goods increased 2.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.3 percent.
Purchases of motor vehicles and parts accounted for most of the increase in July and for most of the decrease
in June. Purchases of nondurable goods decreased 0.3 percent in July, in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in
June. Purchases of services increased 0.5 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
PCE price index -- The price index for PCE increased 0.4 percent in July, in contrast to a decrease of 0.1 percent in
June. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2 percent, the same increase as in June.
Revisions
Estimates of personal income have been revised for January through June; estimates for PCE have been revised for
April through June. Changes in personal income, current-dollar and chained (2005) dollar DPI, and current-dollar
and chained (2005) dollar PCE for May and June -- revised and as published in last month's release -- are shown below.
Estimates of wages and salaries were revised from January through June. The revisions to first-quarter wages and
salaries reflect the incorporation of the most recently available BLS tabulations of the first-quarter wages and
salaries from the quarterly census of employment and wages. Revised estimates for April, May, and June reflect
extrapolations from the revised first-quarter level of wages. In addition, revisions to May and June reflect revised
BLS employment, hours, and earnings data for May and June.
Change from preceding month
May June
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
(Billions of dollars) (Percent) (Billions of dollars) (Percent)
Personal Income:
Current dollars 23.2 34.7 0.2 0.3 18.7 27.7 0.1 0.2
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars 17.6 26.3 0.2 0.2 16.3 22.6 0.1 0.2
Chained (2005) dollars -1.4 5.6 0.0 0.1 31.9 32.9 0.3 0.3
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars 5.9 14.8 0.1 0.1 -21.9 -14.3 -0.2 -0.1
Chained (2005) dollars -10.2 -3.1 -0.1 0.0 -3.2 -0.6 0.0 0.0
BEA’s national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are
available without charge on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free
e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release – September 30, 2011 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for Personal Income and Outlays for August
Gregg D. Killoren
victoria1014
Personal Income Flat, Consumption Up 0.2 Percent in July 2009
Personal income increased $3.8 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $4.6 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in July, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $25.0 billion, or 0.2 percent. In June, personal income decreased $133.4 billion, or 1.1 percent, DPI decreased $119.9 billion, or 1.1 percent, and PCE increased $60.9 billion, or 0.6 percent, based on revised estimates.
Payrolls Increased
Reflecting the slight uptick in average hourly wages and average hours worked that showed up in the second quarter GDP figures, private wage and salary disbursements increased $6.7 billion in July, in contrast to a decrease of $24.5 billion in June. Goods-producing industries’ payrolls increased $1.4 billion, in contrast to a June decrease of $10.0 billion; manufacturing payrolls increased $5.0 billion, in contrast to a June decrease of $14.5 billion.
Real DPI, Real PCE and PCE Price Index
Real DPI—DPI adjusted to remove price changes—decreased 0.1 percent in July, compared with a decrease of 1.6 percent in June.
Real PCE—PCE adjusted to remove price changes—increased 0.2 percent in July, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent in June. The increase is largely attributable to motor vehicle purchases spurred by the federal CARS program, aka “cash for clunkers.”
According to a technical note released by the BEA, the following is a simplified example of how a transaction under the CARS program will be reflected in PCE: Suppose a household purchases a new car under the CARS program and pays a negotiated price of $20,000 less a rebate of $3,500, for a transaction price of $16,500. The purchase of the new car will be included in PCE. The valuation for current-dollar PCE is the net price paid by the household after the rebate—which is $16,500, the value of the transaction for current-dollar PCE. (The $3,500 will be reflected in the GDP statistics as a subsidy, which is like a negative sales tax).
For calculation of real PCE, BEA deflates the current-dollar value by the relevant price deflator, which in principle should reflect the decrease in the transaction price. Thus, all else equal, the effect of the CARS program are reflected in increases in quantity and decreases in prices for the motor vehicle component of PCE.
Savings Rate
The Savings Rate fell to 4.2 percent in July from 4.5 percent in June. Over the past 30 years, the Savings Rate has averaged 5.6 percent and before 1995 it averaged 7.7 percent. Although personal savings have improved dramatically from the negative rate that had been posted in the years prior to the Financial Crisis of 2008, there is still some distance to go before returning to normal.
Peter Boockvar, Equity Strategist at Miller Tabak & Co., LLC, sums it up best: “Saving is the new cool and having credit card debt is so passe. This transition is not a multi Q process but multi year and it has implications for US economic growth for years to come. Our economy will be for the better though in time as exports and investment eventually pick up the slack as we can better finance our growth with savings and less on debt. Even if consumers wanted to pick up their spending in the face of weak income growth, they can’t as access to credit remains crimped. Credit drove our economy on high speed for 10 years. We’ll get a rebound but it won’t be sustainable until we save more and export more.” Read Boockvar’s complete post here: Income Spending Savings.
Investors jumping on the retail-stock-buying bandwagon had better be sure about the long-term value of the underlying company. Many retailers are going to struggle to eke out a profit in the face of lower personal consumption over a multi-year period. Competition for ever scarcer consumer spending will likely drive more than a few retailers out of business, and many more will suffer below-par earnings, thus reducing the value of the company.
Read the full BEA release here: Personal Income and Outlays: July 2009.
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Posted in Economy, Market Commentary, Personal Finance, Personal Income, Savings Rate
Tagged Economy, Market Commentary, Personal Finance, Personal Income, Savings Rate