Tag Archives: Gross Domestic Product

China has reported that the country posted a 9.2 percent gross domestic product growth rate in 2011.  That’s a steep drop from 2010′s 10.4 percent GDP growth rate. Moreover, the pace of growth trended lower throughout the year, landing with a thud in the fourth quarter on a 2 percent quarterly increase. Using annual growth rates, each quarter looked as follows: 9.7 percent in the first quarter; 9.5 percent for the second quarter; 9.1 percent for the third quarter; and 8.9 percent for the fourth quarter.

The slowdown can mostly be attributed to tighter monetary policy. China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China, has been aggressively curbing lending over the last two years, trying to combat high inflation.  The efforts have been successful in putting a damper on the inflation rate, which is back under 5 percent after hitting as high as 6.5 percent in the last year.  However, some economists fear that scarce credit combined with the ongoing problems in Europe may drag China’s GDP even lower, perhaps by more than a full percentage point (see Wall Street Journal, China Real Time Report).

The full press release from China’s National Bureau of Statistics follows:

Ma Jiantang

Commissioner

National Bureau of Statistics of China

17 January 2012

In the year of 2011, in face of complicated and volatile international environment and emerging challenges in the domestic economic development, the Central Party Committee and the State Council took scientific development as the theme and transformation of economic development mode as the mainline, firmly carried out the pro-active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, continuously strengthened and improved macro control. As a result, the national economy kept moving towards the expected direction of macro economic control; economic and social development during the Twelfth Five-Year period achieved a good start.

According to the preliminary estimation, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China was 47,156.4 billion yuan in 2011, a year-on-year increase of 9.2 percent at comparable prices. Specifically, the year-on-year growth of the first quarter was 9.7 percent, 9.5 percent for the second quarter, 9.1 percent for the third quarter and 8.9 percent for the fourth quarter. The value added of the primary industry was 4,771.2 billion yuan, up by 4.5 percent; the secondary industry 22,059.2 billion yuan, up by 10.6 percent; and the tertiary industry 20,326.0 billion yuan, up by 8.9 percent. The gross domestic product of the fourth quarter of 2011 went up by 2.0 percent on a quarterly basis.

1. Agricultural Production Went up Steadily while Grain Yield Increased for Eight Consecutive Years.

The total grain output in 2011 was 571.21 million tons, an increase of 24.73 million tons, up by 4.5 percent, which was an increase for eight consecutive years. The total output of summer grain was 126.27 million tons, up by 2.5 percent year-on-year; early rice was 32.76 million tons, an increase of 4.5 percent; autumn grain was 412.18 million tons, an increase of 5.1 percent. The output of cotton in 2011 was 6.6 million tons, up by 10.7 percent; oil-bearing crops 32.79 million tons, an increase of 1.5 percent; and sugar crops 125.2 million tons, an increase of 4.3 percent. The total output of pork, beef, mutton and poultry in 2011 reached 78.03 million tons, a growth of 0.3 percent. The output of pork was 50.53 million tons, down by 0.4 percent. The number of pigs in stock was 467.67 million, up by 0.7 percent, while the number of slaughtered pigs was 661.7 million, a decrease of 0.8 percent. The output of poultry eggs in 2011 was 28.11 million tons, up by 1.8 percent, and cow milk was 36.56 million tons, an increase of 2.2 percent.

2. Industrial Production Realized a Steady and Rapid Growth with a Sustained Increase of Corporate Profits.

The total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size in 2011 was up by 13.9 percent at comparable prices. An analysis by types of ownership showed that the value added growth of the state-owned and state holding enterprises went up by 9.9 percent; collective enterprises by 9.3 percent; share-holding enterprises by 15.8 percent; and enterprises funded by foreign investors or investors from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan province by 10.4 percent. The annual growth of the heavy industry was 14.3 percent, and 13.0 percent for the light industry. All the 39 industrial divisions registered year-on-year growth. The growth rates in eastern, central and western regions were up by 11.7 percent, 18.2 percent and 16.8 percent respectively. Out of 468 kinds of industrial products, 417 kinds realized a year-on-year increase with electricity up by 12.0 percent, rolled steel up by 12.3 percent, cement up by 16.1 percent, ten kinds of nonferrous metals up by 10.6 percent, ethylene up by 7.4 percent and motor vehicles up by 3.0 percent. Specifically, the output of cars was up by 5.9 percent. The sales ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size in 2011 was 98.0 percent, down by 0.1 percentage point. The export delivery value reached 10,194.6 billion yuan, up by 16.6. In December, the total value added of the industrial enterprises above designated size was up by 12.8 percent year-on-year, or up by 1.1 percent month-on-month.

In the first eleven months of 2011, the profits made by industrial enterprises above designated size stood at 4,663.8 billion yuan, up by 24.4 percent year-on-year. Among the 39 industrial divisions, 36 divisions registered year-on-year increase in profits, and 3 divisions witnessed reduction. In the first eleven months of 2011, the costs of primary activities of the industrial enterprises above designated size accounted for 84.98 percent of the turnover from their primary activities, which was 0.09 percentage point slightly lower than that in the first three quarters of 2011. In November, the profit rate of industrial enterprises above designated size from their primary activities was 7 percent.

3. Investment in Fixed Assets Kept a Fast Growth and Investment Structure Further Improved.

In 2011, the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) was 30,193.3 billion yuan, a growth of 23.8 percent (a real growth of 16.1 percent). Specifically, the investment in the state-owned and state holding enterprises reached 10,748.6 billion yuan, a rise of 11.1 percent. The investment in the primary industry was 679.2 billion yuan, up by 25.0 percent; the secondary industry 13,226.3 billion yuan, up by 27.3 percent; and the tertiary industry 16,287.7 billion yuan, an increase of 21.1 percent. In terms of the investment in the secondary industry, it was 12,901.1 billion yuan, up by 26.9 percent. Specifically, the investment in mining reached 1,181 billion yuan, up by 21.4 percent; manufacturing 10,259.4 billion yuan, up by 31.8 percent; and the production and supply of electricity, gas and water 1,460.7 billion yuan, up by 3.8 percent. The investment in infrastructural facilities (excluding the production and supply of electricity, gas and water) was 5,106 billion yuan, up by 5.9 percent, the growth rate of which was 14.3 percentage points lower than that in the previous year. In terms of different areas, the growth rates in eastern, central and western regions were 21.3 percent, 28.8 percent and 29.2 percent respectively. The funds in place for investment in 2011 was 33,421.9 billion yuan, up by 20.3 percent. Specifically, the state budget went up by 10.8 percent, domestic loans up by 3.5 percent, self-raising funds up by 28.6 percent, foreign investment up by 8.2 percent and others up by 9.0 percent. The total investment in newly-started projects in 2011 was 24,034.4 billion yuan, an increase of 22.5 percent. The number of projects started this year was 332,931, or 431 more than that in the previous year. In December, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.14 percent month-on-month.

4. Real Estate Development Showed a Downward Trend with the Sales of Commercialized Buildings Falling Back.

The total investment in real estate development in 2011 was 6,174 billion yuan, a nominal annual growth of 27.9 percent (a real growth of 20.0 percent), or 4.1 percentage points lower than that in the first three quarters, or 5.3 percentage points lower than that in the previous year. In particular, the investment in residential buildings went up by 30.2 percent, or 5.0 percentage points and 2.6 percentage points lower respectively. The floor space started this year was 1,900.83 millions square meters, up by 16.2 percent, the growth rate of which was 7.5 percentage points lower than that in the first three quarters, or 24.4 percentage points lower than that in the previous year. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings started in the year went up by 12.9 percent, 8.4 percentage points lower and 25.8 percentage points lower respectively. The floor space of commercial buildings sold in 2011 was 1,099.46 million square meters, up by 4.9 percent, or 8.0 percentage points lower than that in the first three quarters and 5.7 percentage points lower than that in the previous year. Specifically, the floor space of residential buildings sold was up by 3.9 percent, 8.2 percentage points lower and 4.4 percentage points lower respectively. The total sales of commercial buildings was 5,911.9 billion yuan, up by 12.1 percent, 11.1 percentage points lower than that in the first three quarters and 6.8 percentage points lower than that in the previous year. Specifically, the sales of residential buildings were up by 10.2 percent, or 11.0 percentage points lower and 4.6 percentage points lower respectively. The land space purchased for real estate development this year was 409.73 million square meters, up by 2.6 percent, 22.6 percentage points lower than that in the previous year. The floor space of commercial buildings for sale was 271.94 million square meters, up by 26.1 percent, or 18.0 percentage points higher than that in the previous year. The sources of funds for real estate development enterprises in the year reached 8,324.6 billion yuan, up by 14.1 percent, or 8.6 percentage points lower than that in the first three quarters and 12.1 percentage points lower than that in the previous year. Specifically, the growth of domestic loans was the same as that in the previous year, self-raising funds up by 28.0 percent, foreign investment up by 2.9 percent and other sources up by 8.6 percent.

5. Sales on Domestic Markets Enjoyed a Steady Growth while Sales of Cars Dropped by a Large Margin.

In 2011, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 18,122.6 billion yuan, a nominal annual rise of 17.1 percent (a real growth of 11.6 percent). Specifically, the retail sales of the enterprises (units) above designated size stood at 8,460.9 billion yuan, up by 22.9 percent. Analyzed by different areas, the retail sales in urban areas reached 15,690.8 billion yuan, up by 17.2 percent, and the retail sales in rural areas stood at 2,431.8 billion yuan, up by 16.7 percent. Grouped by consumption patterns, the income of catering industry was 2,054.3 billion yuan, up by 16.9 percent; and the retail sales of goods were 16,068.3 billion yuan, up by 17.2 percent. In particular, the retail sales of the enterprises (units) above designated size reached 7,816.4 billion yuan, an annual growth of 23.2 percent. Specifically, the sales of motor vehicles rose by 14.6 percent, or 20.2 percentage points lower than that in the previous year; furniture grew up by 32.8 percent, or 4.4 percentage points lower; and household appliances and audio-video equipment went up by 21.6 percent, or 6.1 percentage points lower. In December, the total retail sales of consumer goods rose by 18.1 percent year-on-year (a real growth of 13.8 percent), or 1.41 percent growth month-on-month.

6. Imports and Exports Maintained a Rapid Growth while Foreign Trade Surplus Continued to Decline.

The total value of imports and exports in 2011 was 3,642.1 billion US dollars, an annual increase of 22.5 percent. The total value of exports was 1,898.6 billion dollars, up by 20.3 percent; the total value of imports was 1,743.5 billion dollars, a year-on-year increase of 24.9 percent. The trade balance was 155.1 billion dollars, or 26.4 billion dollars less than that of the previous year. Foreign trade mode continued to improve. In terms of the total value of imports and exports, the general trade was 1,924.6 billion dollars, accounting for 52.8 percent of the total value, up by 29.2 percent, or 2.7 percentage points higher than that of the previous year; processing trade was 1,305.2 billion dollars, up by 12.7 percent. Among the value of exports, the general trade was 917.1 billion dollars, up by 27.3 percent; and processing trade 835.4 billion dollars, up by 12.9 percent. Among the value of imports, the general trade was 1,007.5 billion dollars, up by 31 percent; and processing trade 469.8 billion dollars, up by 12.5 percent.

7. Money Supply Dropped Steadily while Newly Increased Credits Reduced Slightly.

By the end of December 2011, the balance of broad money (M2) was 85.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 13.6 percent, which was 6.1 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year; the balance of narrow money (M1) was 29.0 trillion yuan, up by 7.9 percent, or 13.3 percentage points lower; and the balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 5.1 trillion yuan, a rise of 13.8 percent, or 2.9 percentage points lower. The amount of outstanding loans of all financial institutions was 54.8 trillion yuan, and the amount of new loans (including bill financing) was 7.5 trillion yuan, which was 390.1 billion yuan less than that of the previous year. The amount of outstanding deposits of all financial institutions was 80.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.6 trillion yuan, or 2.3 trillion yuan less than that of 2010.

8. Market Prices Showed a Year-on-year Increase and the Growth Rates Continued to Narrow after July.

In 2011, the consumer price index (CPI) went up by 5.4 percent, or by 5.3 percent in cities and 5.8 percent in rural areas. Grouped by commodity categories, prices for food went up by 11.8 percent; tobacco, liquor and articles rose by 2.8 percent; clothing went up by 2.1 percent; household facilities, articles and maintenance services went up by 2.4 percent; health care and personal articles grew by 3.4 percent; transportation and communication rose by 0.5 percent; recreation, education, culture articles and services grew by 0.4 percent; and housing went up by 5.3 percent. The growth of consumer price index continued to decline after hitting the highest point of 6.5 percent in July. In December, the year-on-year change of consumer prices was up by 4.1 percent, or 0.3 percent month-on-month growth. In 2011, the producer price index for manufactured goods went up by 6.0 percent, and that in December grew by 1.7 percent year-on-year, down by 0.3 percent month-on-month. The purchaser price index for industrial products in 2011 was up by 9.1 percent year-on-year, and that in December was up by 3.5 percent, down by 0.4 percent month-on-month.

9. Urban and Rural Residents’ Income Increased Steadily while Rural Residents’ Income Grew Faster than Urban.

In 2011, the per capita total income of urban households was 23,979 yuan. Specifically, the per capita disposable income of urban households was 21,810 yuan, the nominal growth was 14.1 percent, or a real growth of 8.4 percent. Of the per capita total income of urban households, the year-on-year growth of wage income was 12.4 percent; transferred income 12.1 percent; net income from business operation 29.0 percent; and 24.7 percent from property income. The per capita net income of rural households was 6,977 yuan, up by 17.9 percent, or 11.4 percent in real terms. Specifically, the growth of wage income was 21.9 percent; household operation income 13.7 percent; property income 13.0 percent; and 24.4 percent from transferred income. Taking the per capita net income of rural households as 1, the ratio of urban-rural income in 2011 was 3.13:1, while that in the previous year was 3.23:1. The total number of migrant workers in 2011 was 252.78 million, an increase of 10.55 million, up by 4.4 percent. Specifically, the number of local migrant workers was 94.15 million and outbound-migrant workers 158.63 million. The average monthly income of outbound-migrant workers was 2,049 yuan, up by 21.2 percent.

10. Total Population Maintained a Slow Increase with Urban Population Exceeding Rural Population for the First Time.

By the end of 2011, the total population of mainland China was 1,347.35 million (including population of 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions, and servicemen in CPLA; but not including residents in Taiwan province, Hong Kong SAR, Macao SAR, Taiwan Province and overseas Chinese), an increase of 6.44 million over the previous year. The number of births was 16.04 million and birth rate was 11.93 in a thousand; the death was 9.6 million and death rate was 7.14 in a thousand; the natural growth rate was 4.79 in a thousand. In terms of gender, the male population was 690.68 million, and female population was 656.67 million; the sex ratio of total population was 105.18 (the female is 100, male to female); the sex ratio at birth was 117.78, which was 0.16 lower than that at the end of previous year. Population aged 60 and over was 184.99 million, which was 13.7 percent of the total population, or 0.47 percentage point higher than that at the end of previous year; population aged 65 and over was 122.88 million, accounting for 9.1 percent of the total population, or 0.25 percentage point higher; population aged 15-64 was 1,002.83 million, 74.4 percent of the total population, or 0.10 percentage point slightly lower. In terms of urban-rural structure, urban population was 690.79 million, an increase of 21.00 million over the previous year; and the rural population was 656.56 million, a decrease of 14.56 million. The proportion of urban population to total population was 51.27 percent, which was 1.32 percentage points higher than that of the previous year.

The external environment for China’s economic development is rather complicated, while the contradictions and problems of uncertainty, incoordination and unsustainability in domestic economic development are still prominent. We should resolutely implement the decisions and arrangements made at the Central Economic Work Conference, take a general line of making steady improvement, continue to carry out the pro-active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy; maintain the continuity and stability of macro-economic policy; improve the relevance, flexibility and prospectiveness of macro-control; persist in balancing the relationships among a steady and comparatively rapid economic development, adjustment of economic structures and management of the inflation expectation; speed up adjustment of economic structures and transformation of economic development mode; and endeavor to achieving a sound and fast economic growth.

Notes:

1. The growth rate of gross domestic product, value added of industrial enterprises above designated size and its sub-items are real growth by using comparable prices. The growth rates of other indicators are nominal growth by using current prices unless otherwise specified.

2. Approved by the State Council, the four seasonally adjusted indicators were released by the National Bureau of Statistics from April 2011: the quarterly gross domestic product (GDP), the month-on-month changes of value added of industrial enterprises above designated size, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and total retails of consumer goods.

According to the auto-revision function of the seasonal adjustment model, GDP in the first, second and third quarter of 2011 and the value added of industrial enterprises above designated size from February to November in 2011, investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households), and the month-on-month changes of total retail sales of consumer goods have been revised. The revised figures and figures for December as well as GDP of the fourth quarter of 2011 are as follows:

The quarter-on-quarter growth of GDP in the first, second, third and fourth quarter of 2011 was 2.1 percent, 2.3 percent, 2.3 percent and 2.0 percent respectively.

3. Approved by the State Council, the National Bureau of Statistics raised the cut-off size of industrial enterprises and fixed assets investment statistics from January 2011. The cut-off size of industrial enterprises changed from an annual revenue from primary activities above 5 million yuan to 20 million yuan; and the cut-off size of fixed assets investment projects rose from a total planned investment above 500 thousand yuan to 5 million yuan. According to estimation, with the new coverage, the data collected on the total volume, structure and growth rates of industrial enterprises and investment in fixed assets showed a similar trend as compared with those under the former coverage.

4. From 2011, the National Bureau of Statistics improved the monthly statistical system of fixed assets investment, expanding the coverage of the monthly statistics from urban areas to rural enterprises and institutions, and defined it as the investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households). This makes the monthly data more complete and the definition more accurate.

5. From 2011, data on the retail sales of the enterprises (units) above designated size are released. The retail sales of the enterprises (units) above designated size refer to the wholesale enterprises (units) with the revenue from primary activities above 20 million yuan, the retail enterprises (units) with the revenue from primary activities above 5 million yuan, and the lodging and catering enterprises (units) with the revenue from primary activities above 2 million yuan.

6. The eastern region includes 11 provinces and municipals of Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Liaoning, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong, Guangdong and Hainan; the central region includes 8 provinces of Shanxi, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hubei and Hunan; the western region includes 12 provinces, municipals and autonomous regions of Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Tibet, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, Ningxia and Xinjiang.

7. The year-on-year growth rates of investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) and investment in real estates development were estimated with the same standards as in the annual report of 2010.

8. Statistics of imports and exports comes from the General Administration of Customs; and data about money supply and deposits and loans comes from the People’s Bank of China.

Appendix:

In case of any differences between English translation and the original Chinese text, the Chinese edition shall prevail.