Tag Archives: Economy

U.S. Federal Open Market Committee Minutes from April 2012 Meeting Released

The Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday released the attached minutes of the Committee meeting held on April 24-25, 2012. A summary of economic projections made by Federal Reserve Board members and Reserve Bank presidents for the April 24-25, 2012 meeting is also included as an addendum to these minutes.

Among the more pertinent discussions for investors, several members indicated more easing “could be necessary if economic recovery lost momentum” or downside risks rise.  The difficulty in gauging whether another round of quantitative easing is coming is in just how bad things would need to get.  For investors, the question is how many points on the Dow or S&P 500 would have to be lost before the Fed acts.

There are clear indications that the FOMC is more concerned with the labor market than inflation. The FOMC members agreed that understanding the reasons behind the decline in the labor force participation rate is “important for understanding unemployment dynamics going forwards.” Recent speeches by certain Fed governors have noted that a big key to helping the housing market recover is improvement in the labor market.  Currently, household remain concerned about future job and income prospects, and therefore are loath to take on any major expenses.

Unfortunately, there is not a whole lot of agreement in the FOMC as to what to do about the labor market. A few of the FOMC members argued that the major reason unemployment is high is that aggregate demand is weak. But a few others argued that current measures of slack in the labor market could be overstated if a lot of today’s high unemployment reflects “structural factors,” such as the skills mismatch.

Coming back to more quantitative easing: if the problem is mainly inadequate aggregate demand, the case for doing more to stimulate the economy is stronger than if the problem is primarily structural.

Here is a link to the FOMC minutes: FOMC Minutes – April 24-25, 2012.

U.S. Industrial Production +1.1% in April 2012, March Revised Lower

The U.S. Federal Reserve has reported that industrial production increased 1.1 percent in April. Output is now reported to have fallen 0.6 percent in March and to have moved up 0.4 percent in February; previously, industrial production was estimated to have been unchanged in both months. Manufacturing output increased 0.6 percent in April after having decreased 0.5 percent in March. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, which increased nearly 4 percent, manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent, and output for all but a few major industries increased. Production at mines rose 1.6 percent, and the output of utilities gained 4.5 percent after unseasonably warm weather in the first quarter held down demand for heating. At 97.4 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for April was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry moved up to 79.2 percent, a rate 3.1 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2011) average.

For more information, please click on the Economic Growth Statistics page, then scroll down to the Industrial Production section.

Purchase Mortgage Applications Down 2.4% in Week Ended May 11, 2012: MBA

The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that applications for mortgages to purchase a home declined 2.4 percent in the week ended May 11, 2012.  Nonetheless, a recent series of weekly increases has the four-week moving average up 1.57 percent.

Thirty-year fixed rate mortgages hit a new all-time low at 3.96 percent, down from 4.01 percent the previous week.

The full MBA press release follows:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 16, 2012)Mortgage applications increased 9.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 11, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 9.2 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 8.7 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 13.0 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.4 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 1.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.77 percent.  The four week moving average is up 1.57 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.88 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 74.9 percent of total applications from 72.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.4 percent from 5.7 percent of total applications from the previous week.

“A flare up of the sovereign debt troubles in Europe once again led investors to flee to the safety of US Treasury securities last week.  As a result, mortgage rates have reached new lows in our survey, and refinancing application volumes picked up substantially as a result,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.    “Survey participants indicated that this was not due primarily to HARP volume – the HARP share of refinances fell to 28 percent of refinance applications, down relative to last week and last month, when the share was just above 30 percent in April.  The increase in refinance activity last week was concentrated in the conventional sector, which was up around 14 percent for the week, while government refinance applications were up only 4 percent.”

During the month of April, the investor share of applications for home purchase was at 5.7 percent, unchanged from March.  The Pacific region has the largest investor share of applications for home purchase at 9.5 percent. In addition, the share of purchase mortgages for second homes decreased to 5.7 percent in April from 5.8 percent in March.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.96 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 4.01 percent, with points decreasing to 0.37 from  0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) decreased to 4.20 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 4.29 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.75 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 3.81 percent, with points increasing to 0.66 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.26 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 3.29 percent, with points increasing to 0.41 from 0.32 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 2.80 percent from 2.83 percent, with points increasing to 0.37 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mortgagebankers.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mortgagebankers.org or click here.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

U.S. Building Permits Plunge 7.0%, Housing Starts +2.6% in April 2012

The U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development jointly announced that building permits in April 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 715,000, down 7.0 percent from the revised March rate but up 23.7 percent from April 2011. Housing starts in April 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 717,000, up 2.6 percent from March’s revised estimate and up 29.9 percent from April 2011.

Here is a link to the full report: New Residential Construction – April 2012.

U.S. Business Inventories +0.3%, Sales +0.6% in March 2012; Inventories/Sales Ratio at 1.27

The U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that March 2012 business inventories were $1,580.2 billion, up 0.3 percent from February 2012 and up 6.6 percent from March 2011. Sales were $1,241.0 billion, up 0.6 percent from February 2012 and up 5.8 percent from March 2011.

The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of March was 1.27. The March 2011 ratio was 1.26.

Here is a link to the full report: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales March 2012.