Tag Archives: Economy

U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Hold at 370,000 in Week Ended May 19, 2012

Posted on May 24, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Department of Labor has announced that initial claims for unemployment insurance were 370,000 in the week ended May 19, 2012.  As has become customary, the DOL upwardly revised the previous week to 372,000 from 370,000, so the department can say that initial claims are down 2,000, rather than unchanged.  In any event, the four-week moving average dropped 5,000 to 370,000, demonstrating that the “improvement” in jobless claims has stalled, at best.

The full DOL press release follows:

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,000, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average of 375,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending May 12, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 12 was 3,260,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,289,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,271,500, a decrease of 17,250 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,288,750.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 327,595 in the week ending May 19, an increase of 2,515 from the previous week. There were 376,632 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.4 percent during the week ending May 12, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,106,534, a decrease of 43,864 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.8 percent and the volume was 3,549,972.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending May 5 was 6,168,620, a decrease of 105,004 from the previous week.

Extended benefits were available in Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, and West Virginia during the week ending May 5.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,204 in the week ending May 12, an increase of 7 from the prior week. There were 2,521 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 85 from the preceding week.

There were 17,523 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending May 5, a decrease of 172 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 38,632, a decrease of 1,057 from the prior week.

States reported 2,630,507 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending May 5, a decrease of 35,500 from the prior week. There were 3,411,860 claimants in the comparable week in 2011. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending May 5 were in Alaska (4.9), California (3.6), Puerto Rico (3.6), Pennsylvania (3.5), New Jersey (3.4), Oregon (3.4), Connecticut (3.2), Illinois (3.1), Nevada (3.1), Rhode Island (3.0), and Wisconsin (3.0).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 12 were in North Carolina (+1,956), Mississippi (+675), Tennessee (+474), Alabama (+428), and Florida (+373), while the largest decreases were in California (-3,478), New York (-3,094), Missouri (-2,111), Texas (-1,446), and Illinois (-1,316).

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

WEEK ENDING Advance May 19 May 12 Change May 5 Prior Year1
Initial Claims (SA) 370,000 372,000 -2,000 370,000 424,000
Initial Claims (NSA) 327,595 325,080 +2,515 341,080 376,632
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) 370,000 375,500 -5,500 379,750 434,000
 
WEEK ENDING Advance May 12 May 5 Change April 28 Prior Year1
Ins. Unemployment (SA) 3,260,000 3,289,000 -29,000 3,247,000 3,737,000
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) 3,106,534 3,150,398 -43,864 3,210,827 3,549,972
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) 3,271,500 3,288,750 -17,250 3,294,500 3,761,250
Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)2 2.6% 2.6% 0.0 2.6% 3.0%
Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)2
 2.4% 2.5% -0.1 2.5% 2.8%

INITIAL CLAIMS FILED IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

WEEK ENDING

May 12

May 5

Change

Prior Year1
Federal Employees 1,204 1,197 +7 1,550
Newly Discharged Veterans 2,521 2,606 -85 2,482

PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

WEEK ENDING

May 5

April 28

Change

Prior Year1
Regular State 3,141,342 3,201,525 -60,183 3,571,995
Federal Employees (UCFE) 17,523 17,695 -172 26,002
Newly Discharged Veterans (UCX) 38,632 39,689 -1,057 36,022
EUC 20083 2,630,507 2,666,007 -35,500 3,411,860
Extended Benefits4 299,955 304,755 -4,800 633,946
State Additional Benefits 5 6,363 7,079 -716 28,625
STC / Workshare 6 34,298 36,874 -2,576 53,003
TOTAL 6,168,620 6,273,624 -105,004 7,761,453

FOOTNOTES
SA – Seasonally Adjusted Data, NSA – Not Seasonally Adjusted Data
1 – Prior year is comparable to most recent data.
2 – Most recent week used covered employment of 127,048,587 as denominator.
3 – EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity. Tier-specific EUC data can be found here: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/persons.xls
4 – Information on the EB program can be found here: http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/extenben.asp
5 – Some states maintain additional benefit programs for those claimants who exhaust regular, extended and emergency benefits. Information on states that participate,
and the extent of benefits paid, can be found starting on page 4-5 of this link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf
6 – Information on STC/Worksharing can be found starting on page 4-9 of the following link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 05/12/2012

STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State Change   State Supplied Comment
CA -3,478   Fewer layoff in the service, agriculture, forestry, and fishing industries.
NY -3,094   Fewer layoffs in the construction, professional, scientific, technical service, and retail industries.
MO -2,111   Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
TX -1,446   No comment.
IL -1,316   No comment.
WA -1,063   No comment.

STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State Change   State Supplied Comment
NC +1,956   Layoffs in the furniture and fixtures, textile, and business industries as well as nonclassifiable establishments.

State Detail Prior Week
UI Claims Series 1967 to current

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, Employment Report

Tagged , , , ,

U.S. Durable Goods Orders +0.2% in April 2012, Ex-Transportation -0.6%

Posted on May 24, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods in April 2012 increased 0.2 percent, to $215.5 billion. However, excluding transportation, new orders fell 0.6 percent. Overall shipments rose 0.7 percent, while capital goods shipments decreased 1.4 percent. Unfilled orders declined 0.1 percent and inventories increased 0.3 percent in April.

Here is a link to the full report: Durable Goods Orders – April 2012.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, Indicators

Tagged , ,

U.S. New Home Sales +3.3% in April 2012

Posted on May 23, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Census Bureau has reported that sales of new single-family homes in April 2012 were 343,000 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, up 3.3 percent from March’s revised rate and up 9.9 percent from April 2011.

Here is a link to the full report: New Residential Sales – April 2012.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, Housing

Tagged , , ,

U.S. Purchase Mortgage Applications Lose Momentum (-3.0%) in Week Ended May 18, 2012

Posted on May 23, 2012 by | Leave a comment

Those touting a bottom in housing may want to pay closer attention to the mortgage market.  Despite record-low interest rates on mortgages, applications for mortgages to purchase a home are slipping again.  For the week ended May 18, 2012, purchase applications dropped 3 percent, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. The four-week moving average is up just 0.17 percent, as the recent momentum seems to have stalled.

The full MBA press release follows:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 23, 2012) — Mortgage applications increased 3.8 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 18, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 3.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 3.3 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index increased 5.6 percent from the previous week.  This is the third consecutive weekly increase in the Refinance Index which is at its highest level since February 10, 2012.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.0 percent from one week earlier to its lowest level since April 20, 2012. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 3.6 percent compared with the previous week and was 4.2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Continuing negative developments in the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, particularly in Greece and Spain, as well as the recent French elections, which have shifted political power in a manner that will likely show less support for European austerity, helped push the US 10 Year Treasury yield below 1.7 percent last week,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.  “Mortgage rates again dipped to new record lows in the survey, which spurred more borrowers back into the refinance market.  As a result, applications for refinance loans have increased for the third straight week and are at the highest level since February of this year.  The HARP share of refinance applications was essentially unchanged over the week at 28 percent, so it was not the primary driver of the increase over the previous week.”

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 3.72 percent.  The four week moving average is up 0.17 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 4.83 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 76.6 percent of total applications from 74.9 percent the previous week.  This is the highest refinance share since March 2, 2012. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.0 percent from 5.4 percent of total applications from the previous week. The government purchase share decreased over the week from 36.3 percent to 36.2 percent of all purchase applications.  This is the second lowest government purchase share since March 27, 2009.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 3.93 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 3.96 percent, with points increasing to 0.39 from  0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) increased to 4.25 percent from 4.20 percent, with points increasing to 0.42 from 0.36 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA decreased to 3.73 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 3.75 percent, with points decreasing to 0.57 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages remained unchanged at 3.26 percent, the lowest rate in the history of the survey, from 3.26 percent, with points increasing to 0.42 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 2.83 percent from 2.80 percent, with points increasing to 0.42 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate increased from last week.

If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mortgagebankers.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mortgagebankers.org or click here.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, Housing

Tagged , , , , , ,

U.S. Existing Home Sales +3.4% in April 2012, Prices Rise: NAR

Posted on May 22, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The National Association of Realtors® has reported that sales of existing homes, including single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 3.4 in April 2012 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million in April from a downwardly revised 4.47 million in March.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, asserted the housing recovery is underway.  “It is no longer just the investors who are taking advantage of high affordability conditions.  A return of normal home buying for occupancy is helping home sales across all price points, and now the recovery appears to be extending to home prices,” Yun said.  “The general downtrend in both listed and shadow inventory has shifted from a buyers’ market to one that is much more balanced, but in some areas it has become a seller’s market.”

Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 9.5 percent to 2.54 million existing homes available for sale. The NAR states this is a seasonal increase, which represents a 6.6-month supply at the current sales pace, up from a 6.2-month supply in March.  Listed inventory is 20.6 percent below a year ago when there was a 9.1-month supply; the record for unsold inventory was 4.04 million in July 2007.

“A diminishing share of foreclosed property sales is helping home values.  Moreover, an acute shortage of inventory in certain markets is leading to multiple biddings and escalating price conditions,” Yun said. He noted some areas with tight supply include the Washington, D.C., area; Miami; Naples, Fla.; North Dakota; Phoenix; Orange County, Calif.; and Seattle.  “We expect stronger price increases in most of these areas.”

The national median existing-home pricefor all housing types jumped 10.1 percent to $177,400 in April from a year ago; the March price showed an upwardly revised 3.1 percent annual improvement.  “This is the first time we’ve had back-to-back price increases from a year earlier since June and July of 2010 when the gains were less than one percent,” Yun said.  “For the year we’re looking for a modest overall price gain of 1.0 to 2.0 percent, with stronger improvement in 2013.”

Distressed homes—foreclosures and short sales sold at deep discounts—accounted for 28 percent of April sales (17 percent were foreclosures and 11 percent were short sales), down from 29 percent in March and 37 percent in April 2011.  Foreclosures sold for an average discount of 21 percent below market value in April, while short sales were discounted 14 percent.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, Housing

Tagged , , , , , ,