Tag Archives: Economy

U.S. New Home Sales -0.9% in January 2012

Posted on February 24, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that sales of new single-family houses in January 2012 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 321,000. Compared to the revised December 2011 estimate of 324,000, January new home sales were down 0.9 percent.

The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2012 was $217,100; the average sales price was $261,600. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January was 151,000. This represents a supply of 5.6
months at the current sales rate, down from 6.1 months in December.  So, the one positive from this report is that supply of new homes continues to decline, which will hopefully help the overall housing market find some balance.

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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims Hold at 351,000 in the Week Ended Feb. 18, 2012

Posted on February 23, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Department of Labor has reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance remained unchanged at 351,000 in the week ended Feb. 18, 2012.  The previous week’s figure was revised higher to 351,000 from the original estimate of 348,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,000.

The full DOL press release follows:

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending February 18, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 351,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised figure of 351,000. The 4-week moving average was 359,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week’s revised average of 366,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.7 percent for the week ending February 11, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 11, was 3,392,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,444,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,453,250, a decrease of 43,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,497,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 345,216 in the week ending February 18, a decrease of 19,888 from the previous week. There were 380,985 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent during the week ending February 11, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,996,051, an increase of 11,166 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.7 percent and the volume was 4,587,740.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending February 4 was 7,502,791, a decrease of 178,619 from the previous week.

 

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, West Virginia, and Wisconsin during the week ending February 4.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,383 in the week ending February 11, a decrease of 195 from the prior week. There were 2,520 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 373 from the preceding week.

There were 28,804 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending February 4, a decrease of 1,506 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 42,021, a decrease of 829 from the prior week.

States reported 2,919,330 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending February 4, a decrease of 83,145 from the prior week. There were 3,685,361 claimants in the comparable week in 2011. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending February 4 were in Alaska (6.8), Idaho (4.6), Montana (4.6), Oregon (4.6), Wisconsin (4.6), Pennsylvania ( 4.5), Rhode Island (4.5), New Jersey (4.3), Puerto Rico (4.3), Connecticut (4.1), and Michigan (4.1).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending February 11 were in Massachusetts (+853), Puerto Rico (+352), Nebraska ( +345), Hawaii (+ 85), and Rhode Island (+69), while the largest decreases were in California (-8,462), Pennsylvania (-3,789), New York (-2,429), North Carolina
(-2,199), and South Carolina (-1,538).

 

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

WEEK ENDING Advance Feb. 18 Feb. 11 Change Feb. 4 Prior Year1
Initial Claims (SA) 351,000 351,000 0 361,000 384,000
Initial Claims (NSA) 345,216 365,104 -19,888 401,365 380,985
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) 359,000 366,000 -7,000 367,000 404,750
 
WEEK ENDING Advance Feb. 11 Feb. 4 Change Jan. 28 Prior Year1
Ins. Unemployment (SA) 3,392,000 3,444,000 -52,000 3,526,000 3,852,000
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) 3,996,051 3,984,885 +11,166 4,097,007 4,587,740
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) 3,453,250 3,497,000 -43,750 3,500,750 3,935,750
Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)2 2.7% 2.7% 0.0 2.8% 3.1%
Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)2
 3.2% 3.1% +0.1 3.2% 3.7%

INITIAL CLAIMS FILED IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

WEEK ENDING
Feb. 11
Feb. 4
Change
Prior Year1
Federal Employees 1,383 1,578 -195 1,971
Newly Discharged Veterans 2,520 2,893 -373 2,352

PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

WEEK ENDING
Feb. 4
Jan. 28
Change
Prior Year1
Regular State 3,974,003 4,087,142 -113,139 4,559,945
Federal Employees (UCFE) 28,804 30,310 -1,506 45,589
Newly Discharged Veterans (UCX) 42,021 42,850 -829 40,498
EUC 20083 2,919,330 3,002,475 -83,145 3,685,361
Extended Benefits4 489,487 475,308 +14,179 761,683
State Additional Benefits 5 4,574 4,524 +50 7,898
STC / Workshare 6 44,572 38,801 +5,771 60,701
TOTAL 7,502,791 7,681,410 -178,619 9,161,675

FOOTNOTES
SA – Seasonally Adjusted Data, NSA – Not Seasonally Adjusted Data
1 – Prior year is comparable to most recent data.
2 – Most recent week used covered employment of 126,579,970 as denominator.
3 – EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity. Tier-specific EUC data can be found here: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/persons.xls
4 – Information on the EB program can be found here: http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/extenben.asp
5 – Some states maintain additional benefit programs for those claimants who exhaust regular, extended and emergency benefits. Information on states that participate,
and the extent of benefits paid, can be found starting on page 4-5 of this link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf
6 – Information on STC/Worksharing can be found starting on page 4-9 of the following link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf

 

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 02/11/2012

STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State Change State Supplied Comment
CA -8,462 Fewer layoffs in the service and retail industries.
PA -3,789 Fewer layoffs in the construction, retail, professional, scientific and technology services, entertainment, and service industries.
NY -2,429 Fewer layoffs in the food service, construction, and retail industries .
NC -2,199 Fewer layoffs in the construction, food and kindred products, electronic, leather, and furniture and fixtures industries.
SC -1,538 Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industry.
IL -1,312 No comment.
OH -1,280 No comment.
TX -1,253 No comment.
MI -1,245 No comment.
GA -1,137 Fewer layoffs in the construction, trade, administrative and support service industries.
KY -1,066 No comment.

STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State Change State Supplied Comment
None

State Detail Prior Week
UI Claims Series 1967 to current

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U.S. Existing Home Sales +4.3% in January 2012: NAR

Posted on February 22, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The National Association of Realtors® has reported that existing home sales increased 4.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.57 million in January from a downwardly revised 4.38 million-unit pace in December and are 0.7 percent above a spike to 4.54 million in January 2011.

Total housing inventory at the end of January fell 0.4 percent to 2.31 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.1-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 6.4-month supply in December.

The broad inventory condition can be described as moving into a rough balance, not favoring buyers or sellers,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist. “Foreclosure sales are moving swiftly with ready home buyers and investors competing in nearly all markets. A government proposal to turn bank-owned properties into rentals on a large scale does not appear to be needed at this time.”

However, February may prove to be a different story, if purchase mortgage applications offer any insight.  Applications were relatively strong in January, but have slipped badly in February, so it is possible that existing home sales may look less encouraging.

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U.S. Purchase Mortgage Applications Slip 2.9% in Week Ended Feb. 17, 2012: MBA

Posted on February 22, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that applications for mortgages to purchase a home fell 2.9 percent in the week ended Feb. 17, 2012.  In the previous week, purchase applications dropped 8.4 percent, so a potential sharp downward trend is forming, erasing positive signs of strength seen at the end of 2011 into January 2012. The four-week moving average is now down 3.21 percent.

Mortgage rates remained relatively stable near all-time lows.  The conforming 30-year fixed rate mortgage edged higher to 4.09 percent from 4.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.53 from 0.51.

The full MBA press release follows:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (February 22, 2012) — Mortgage applications decreased 4.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending February 17, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 4.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 3.6 percent compared with the previous week.  The Refinance Index decreased 4.8 percent from the previous week.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.9 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 1.4 percent compared with the previous week and was 9.2 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is down 0.30 percent.  The four week moving average is down 3.21 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 0.33 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 80.1 percent of total applications from 81.1 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 5.3 percent from 5.4 percent of total applications from the previous week.

In January 2012, among refinance borrowers, 57.2 percent of applications were for fixed-rate 30-year loans, 24.4 percent for 15-year fixed loans, and 5.5 percent for ARMs.  The share of refinance applications for “other” fixed-rate mortgages with amortization schedules other than 15 and 30-year terms was 12.9 percent of all refinance applications. The share for 30-year fixed, 15-year fixed and ARM increased from the previous month while the “other” fixed category shares decreased from last month.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) increased to 4.09 percent from 4.08 percent, with points increasing to 0.53 from  0.51 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.  The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) increased to 4.32 percent from 4.30 percent, with points decreasing to 0.42 from 0.44 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV ratio loans.  The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA remained unchanged at 3.87 percent, with points decreasing to 0.41 from 0.78 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV ratio loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 3.38 percent from 3.33 percent, with points decreasing to 0.37 from 0.40 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. The effective rate also increased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs increased to 2.94 percent from 2.93 percent, with points increasing to 0.44 from 0.42 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV ratio loans.  The effective rate also increased from last week.

If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mortgagebankers.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mortgagebankers.org or click here.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 280,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation’s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 2,200 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field. For additional information, visit MBA’s Web site:  www.mortgagebankers.org.

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U.S. Economic Activity Slowed in January 2012, But Still Above Average: Chicago Fed National Activity Index

Posted on February 21, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago has announced that its index of national economic activity was +0.22 in January 2012, down from +0.54 in December. Despite the weaker showing, January’s positive reading represents the
first back-to-back positive months in a year. Consumer spending and housing was negative in January, which pulled the index down. Otherwise, three of the four broad categories covered by the index were positive.

The three-month moving average rose from +0.06 in December to
+0.14 in January, reaching its highest level since March 2011. The growth rate reflects economic expansion at a higher-than-historical-trend rate. However, the rate is at a level where economic growth is not expected to cause inflationary pressures.

Here is a link to the report: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – January 2012.

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