Tag Archives: Credit Crisis

Two Key Lessons from Lehman Bros. Failure: Bernanke

Testifying before the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) Chairman Ben Bernanke will outline two key financial regulatory reforms that arise from lessons learned during the failure of investment bank Lehman Bros. in September 2008.  The fall of Lehman during a stressful time in financial markets and an already severe recession caused financial markets worldwide to seize up, thus creating a credit crisis.

Prior to Lehman’s collapse, the Fed had already begun monitoring the investment bank’s financial condition, even though the Fed had no direct regulatory authority over Lehman because it did not own a bank.  Rather, Lehman was regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).  In March 2008, the Fed oversaw the sale of failing investment bank Bear Stearns to JPMorgan Chase.  Responding to the escalating pressures on primary dealers like Lehman, the Fed used its statutory emergency lending powers to establish the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Term Securities Lending Facility as sources of backstop liquidity for those firms.  In its role as creditor, the Fed required all participants in these programs, including Lehman, to provide financial information about their companies on an ongoing basis.  The Fed actually placed two employees on-site at Lehman, but their activities were limited to gathering financial information.

The Fed, with the SEC’s participation, developed and conducted several stress tests of the liquidity position of Lehman and the other major primary dealers during the spring and summer of 2008. The results of these stress tests were presented jointly by the Fed and the SEC to the managements of Lehman and the other firms. Lehman’s results showed significant deficiencies in available liquidity, which the management was strongly urged to correct.  Those deficiencies were identified even without the Fed’s knowledge of how Lehman was using so-called “Repo 105″ transactions to manage its balance sheet.

Lehman’s attempts to raise additional capital fell short.  During August and early September 2008, increasingly panicky conditions in markets put Lehman and other financial firms under severe pressure. In an attempt to devise a private-sector solution for Lehman’s plight, the Fed, the Treasury Department and SEC brought together leaders of the major financial firms in a series of meetings at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during the weekend of Sept. 13-15, 2008. Despite the best efforts of all involved, a solution could not be crafted, nor could an acquisition by another company be arranged. With no other option available, Lehman declared bankruptcy.

At the time, no government agency had authority to provide capital or an unsecured guarantee, and thus no means of preventing Lehman’s failure existed.  Moreover, it was unclear how the nearly one million derivatives transactions Lehman was a party to would be handled in bankruptcy court.  This is what generally caused financial markets to cease operating.

Bernanke concludes in his prepared testimony: “The Lehman failure provides at least two important lessons. First, we must eliminate the gaps in our financial regulatory framework that allow large, complex, interconnected firms like Lehman to operate without robust consolidated supervision. In September 2008, no government agency had sufficient authority to compel Lehman to operate in a safe and sound manner and in a way that did not pose dangers to the broader financial system. Second, to avoid having to choose in the future between bailing out a failing, systemically critical firm or allowing its disorderly bankruptcy, we need a new resolution regime, analogous to that already established for failing banks. Such a regime would both protect our economy and improve market discipline by ensuring that the failing firm’s shareholders and creditors take losses and its management is replaced.”

G-7 Meeting to Focus on Maintaining Economic Stimulus

While in the short-term, equity markets are concerned about potential sovereign debt defaults in Europe and unemployment in the U.S., investors with a more long-term strategy should pay attention to this weekend’s G-7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers.  There are two things to look for: 1) at some point central banks are going to put out the fire that is raging in Greece and spreading to Spain, Italy and Portugal, and the G-7 meeting will be the appropriate forum to draw up a plan; and 2) Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is expected to urge other G-7 nations to keep providing stimulus through the rest of this year, arguing that without continued government support the fledgling recoveries could falter, plunging the world back into recession.

The talks, which will begin with a dinner Friday night, are scheduled to wrap up with a closing joint news conference on Saturday afternoon.

Recently, markets have been betting on the duration of stimulus aid.  As signs of economic recovery continue to improve and concerns over budget deficits and inflation gather, a question of when stimulus efforts should be ended and monetary policy tightened has emerged.  However, Geithner is expected to argue that government programs to support jobs must be kept in place through this year to give business and consumer spending time to gather momentum.

U.S. stimulus spending has raised fears that budget deficits could trigger inflation and further drive down the dollar’s value, so if Geithner is successful, expect that to happen. A further fall in the dollar would irk nations such as France and Germany. Their manufacturers have complained that the dollar’s slide against the euro gives U.S. competitors a competitive edge. A weaker dollar makes U.S. goods cheaper in overseas markets and European goods costlier for American consumers.

Essentially, if stimulus programs remain in place and rates are held near zero, investors will be penalized for holding cash.  Thus, investors will continue to, despite the current fear, chase after risky assets for yield.

Jobs for Main Street Act of 2010 Includes Build America Bonds Extension, Expansion

Municipal market participants are asking Congress to provide more assistance for municipal bonds in 2010 by extending or expanding many of the bond-related provisions in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, especially those authorizing the Build America Bond program.

Many municipalities will face shortfalls in the coming years, and, to avert a crisis, the municipal bond market will need to attract more investment. For example, New Jersey cities and towns are leading the downgrade parade for municipal bonds, amid a slashed aid budget and 11 percent declines in property values. It could start a trend: “In many of the large states, this is going to become the norm: California, New York, New Jersey and Illinois,” says McDonnell’s Richard Ciccarone.

The Build America Bond program assists municipal bonds by offering a federal tax credit to investors.  The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act created the Build America Bonds program, which was designed to stabilize the municipal bond market by easing the oversupply of municipal bonds.  Build America Bonds offer a 35 percent rebate from the Federal government to issuers on their interest payments. This means that issuers can offer higher rates on their debt than they typically would be able to afford, and so take their offerings into the taxable bond market.

Direct Payments

A bill (The Jobs for Main Street Act of 2010, included within H.R. 2847) passed by the House of Representatives on Dec. 16, 2009, would expand two tax-credit bond programs for school projects to allow state and local issuers to receive direct Build America Bond-style payments from the Treasury Department, instead of investors receiving tax credits.

State and local governments this year have issued more than $63 billion of direct-pay BABs, which provide them with federal payments equaling 35 percent of their interest expense. That compares to a much-smaller $2.46 billion of tax-credit bonds that were issued during the same period, according to Thomson Reuters.

Extension

Majority Chief Counsel for the House Ways and Means Committee John Buckley suggested in November that the direct-pay BAB program could even be made permanent, although probably at a lower subsidy rate than the current 35 percent of interest expenses. Buckley said at a conference co-hosted by the National Association of Bond Lawyers and American University’s Washington College of Law: “I do believe that there will be an extension of BABs, and the only question is when that happens and for what duration …. There is a good case to be made for the sooner the better, and the longer, if not permanent.”

Many market participants have urged Congress to approve a BAB extension as soon as possible because it would give the still-developing market some stability and show investors that the bonds will not merely be a one-year wonder.

Expansion

Market participants are beginning to consider how the program could be expanded to other sectors of the municipal bond market. Currently, BABs are limited to new-money issue by governmental bodies to finance capital expenditures, with the idea that they be used for projects that stimulate the economy. Some market participants have suggested Congress permit BABs to be used for working capital purposes such as refunding.

Exemption from Alternative Minimum Tax

When the ARRA was signed into law in February, it contained a number of provisions that eased tax law restrictions or expanded the market for municipal bonds through the end of 2010. All municipal bonds were exempted from the individual and corporate alternative minimum tax. Banks were permitted to purchase and hold more tax-exempt debt without losing tax deductions. Market participants are turning their attention and energy towards keeping those provisions beyond their Dec. 31, 2010, expiration dates.

Details of the Jobs for Main Street Act of 2010

INFRASTRUCTURE
The bill redirects $48.3 billion from the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) to the following areas:

  • Highway Infrastructure: $27.5 billion to make additional highway infrastructure investments.
  • Transit: $8.4 billion for public transportation investments including $6.15 billion for urban and rural formula grants; $500 million for capital investment grants for new or expanded fixed guideway projects; and $1.75 billion in formula funds to address repair needs of existing subway, light rail and commuter rail systems. Amtrak: $800 million for capital grants to Amtrak for the acquisition and rehabilitation of rolling stock and passenger equipment to improve the speed and capacity of intercity passenger rail service. This investment will increase the fuel efficiency of Amtrak’s locomotives and support domestic production of passenger rail equipment.
  • Airport Improvement Grants: $500 million for airport improvement projects that will support putting people to work to improve safety and reduce congestion at our nation’s airports. An estimated $49.7 billion is needed between 2009 and 2013 to fully fund eligible airport infrastructure projects.
  • Maritime Administration: $100 million for the Maritime Guaranteed Loan (Title XI) program to allow vessel and shipyard owners to obtain long-term financing for growth and modernization projects.
  • Clean Water: $2 billion to help communities provide clean and safe water for both their citizens and the environment, including $1 billion for the Clean Water State Revolving Fund and $1 billion for the Safe Drinking Water State Revolving Fund. This funding would assist more than 670 communities address the ever-growing backlog of sewer and water repairs and rehabilitation. Half of the funds will include additional subsidies, such as principal forgiveness and grants, to make it easier for more communities to access the programs.
  • Bureau of Reclamation: $100 million to provide clean, reliable drinking water to rural areas and to ensure adequate water supply to areas impacted by drought.
  • Corps of Engineers: $715 million for environmental restoration, flood protection, hydropower, and navigation infrastructure projects by the Corps of Engineers. The Corps has a construction backlog of $61 billion.
  • Energy Innovation Loans: $2 billion for the Department of Energy Innovative Technology Loan Guarantee Program, to promote the rapid deployment of renewable energy and electric transmission projects.
  • School Renovation Grants: $4.1 billion to allow State, local, or tribal governments to receive a federal grant equal to the cost of tax credits that would otherwise be payable on bonds issued to finance school construction, rehabilitation or repair.
  • Housing Trust Fund: $1 billion for the National Housing Trust Fund to provide communities with funds to build, preserve, and rehabilitate rental homes that are affordable for extremely and very low-income households; and $65 million for project-based vouchers to support units built by the Trust Fund.
  • Public Housing Capital Fund: $1 billion for the Public Housing Capital Fund for additional repairs and rehabilitation of public housing. Every dollar of Capital Fund expenditures produces $2.12 in economic return. In fiscal year 2009, HUD received applications totaling $3.7 billion for Capital Fund projects, but was only able to fund $1 billion in awards. This funding will spur construction quickly, as HUD has ready-to-go applications for projects on hand.

PUBLIC SERVICE
The bill redirects $26.7 billion from TARP toward public service jobs such as teachers, firefighters, and police officers, including:

  • Education Jobs Fund: $23 billion for an Education Jobs Fund to help States support an estimated 250,000 education jobs over the next two years.
  • Law Enforcement Jobs: $1.18 billion to support putting over 5,500 law enforcement officers on patrol throughout the United States.
  • Firefighter Jobs: $500 million to retain, rehire, and hire firefighters across the United States. According to the International Association of Firefighters, nearly 6,000 firefighters have been laid off or are subject to layoffs. An additional 6,000 positions have been lost through attrition. Any unused funds may be transferred to firefighter assistance equipment grants.
  • AmeriCorps: $200 million for AmeriCorps programs and the National Service Trust, to support an additional 25,000 AmeriCorps Members.
  • Summer Youth Employment: $500 million for a summer employment program for youth. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the unemployment rate for teenagers (age 16 to 19) reached 26.7 percent in November 2009 – the highest level recorded since BLS began collecting data.
  • College Work Study: $300 million to support the College Work Study program, which supports low and moderate-income undergraduate and graduate students who work while attending college.
  • Parks and Forestry Workers: $270 million to support putting people to work improving and protecting federal, state, and local public lands. These funds would support approximately 14,000 short-term jobs, improving service to visitors, reducing the large backlog in facilities and habitat restoration needs, and reducing hazardous fuels that lead to damaging and expensive wildfires.
  • Job Training for High Growth Fields: $750 million for competitive grants to support job training for approximately 150,000 individuals in high growth and emerging industry sectors, particularly in the health care and green industries that are adding jobs despite difficult economic conditions. Grants for job training in green industries would focus on programs that train workers living in areas of high poverty.

CONTINUING EMERGENCY FUNDING
The bill would also continue emergency help to working families at a cost of $79 billion, including:

  • Unemployment Insurance: $41 billion to extend, for six months, expanded unemployment benefits, including increased payouts and longer duration of benefits.
  • Help with Health Insurance for Unemployed Workers (COBRA): $12.3 billion to extend from nine to 15 months the 65 percent COBRA health insurance subsidy for individuals who have lost their jobs. The job lost eligibility date is extended in the provision to June 30, 2010.
  • Small Business Loans: $354 million, fully offset, to allow the Small Business Administration (SBA) to continue two temporary loan guarantee authorities through the end of fiscal year 2010 to make loans more attractive to borrowers and lenders and to free up capital. Small businesses represent a major engine for the U.S. economy, but many small business owners have had a difficult time securing needed loans in these tight economic times.
  • FMAP Extension: $23.5 billion to extend the higher federal match for payments to doctors providing services to low-income families under Medicaid through June 2010. The higher federal match would provide an incentive for states to commit resources to their Medicaid programs and helps ensure services for Medicaid beneficiaries.
  • Child Care Tax Credit: $2.3 billion to increase eligibility for the refundable portion of the child tax credit by removing the $3,000 floor for 2010. That will cut taxes for 16 million families, by making the Child Tax Credit available to all low-income working families with children in 2010.
  • Assistance Eligibility: $305 million to freeze Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) poverty guidelines at 2009 levels in order to prevent a reduction in eligibility for certain means-tested programs, including Medicaid, Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), and child nutrition.
  • Income Tax Refund Disregard: Provides that individuals may exclude counting tax refunds as income for the purpose of assessing eligibility for means-tested programs supported by Federal funds for one year.
  • Social Security Legal Assistance: The bill would permanently authorize a provision to help Social Security and Supplemental Security Income disability claimants retain legal representation. The provision limits attorney fees to 25 percent of the claimant’s past-due benefits, only paid if the claimant wins and subject to a $6,000 cap.

OTHER ITEMS

  • Surface Transportation Authorization Extension: Extends the authorization for the highway, transit, highway safety and motor carrier safety programs of the Department of Transportation until Sept. 30, 2010. In addition, the bill includes language that provides 100 percent federal share for the transportation programs authorized in the title, repeals the provision that prohibits Highway Trust Fund balances from earning interest and restores $20 billion to the Highway Trust Fund.
  • USDA Civil Rights Claims: The bill would extend the statute of limitations for claims of discrimination in USDA’s credit programs that have been pending for years at USDA and provides funding for remedies.

Central Banks Need to Focus on Credit – Why the Fed Needs to Have Bank Supervisory Powers

As Congress attempts to pass sweeping financial regulatory reform measures one key issue is the role of the Federal Reserve as the central bank.  Some argue that, as the central bank, the Fed should be stripped of its current regulatory authority over bank holding companies in order to focus on inflation and output targets.  However, as I and others have asserted, one of the major causes of the financial crisis was the overabundance of credit, fueled by the U.S. current account deficit and easy monetary policy.  Now, two economists, in a column posted at VOXeu.org, have provided the historical evidence to back up this theory, and they suggest that central banks should be more aware of credit booms.

Here’s an excerpt from the column by Moritz Schularick, Assistant Professor of Economics and Economic History at the John F. Kennedy Institute of the Free University of Berlin, and Alan Taylor, Director, Center for the Evolution of the Global Economy and CEPR Research Fellow:

Long-run historical evidence therefore suggests that credit has an important role to play in central bank policy. Its exact role remains open to debate. After their recent misjudgements, central banks should clearly pay some attention to credit aggregates and not confine themselves simply to following targeting rules based on output and inflation. However, whether they should also build credit signals into interest-rate policy or develop other instruments to curb excessive leverage remains an unresolved issue.

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke has repeatedly argued that the Fed cannot execute its central bank responsibilities effectively without being involved in the day-to-day regulation of the financial industry (to have access to up-to-date information).  Of course, the irony is that Bernanke himself may have been one of the architects, as a member of the Fed earlier this decade, of the easy monetary policy that led, in part, to the 2008 Financial Crisis.  However, given the evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis and the hope that Bernanke is smart enough, and, unlike his predecessor, humble enough to learn from his mistakes, I hope Washington listens.

To read the full column at VOXeu.org, please click on the following link: Credit booms go wrong.

Meet The New Crisis, Same As The Old Crisis

As the financial media looks agape at the developments of Dubai’s debt troubles, this is a good time to focus on how the next financial crisis might develop.  Recognizing trouble signs can help investors avoid costly panic declines in equity and bond markets and be prepared with cash to buy near market lows.

Before we dive into the analysis, we need to make one clear distinction: Dubai is not the harbinger of a new financial crisis.  Rather, it might best be described as an “aftershock” from the 2008 crisis.  A country so grossly in debt to fund its outrageous construction plans should not shock the world in this environment when it announces that it needs help meeting its payment obligations.  As we showed on Friday, elevated credit default swap prices, though down from their extreme highs of a year ago, foretell additional “aftershocks.”  Markets around the world dropped because they were overbought, but recovered as soon as they hit certain technical levels, like the 50-day moving average.  European markets recovered on Friday, and Asian markets are rising as this column is being written.

The next crisis, if it the present course remains unaltered, will look much like the most recent one.  That is because it will share many of the same causes (see How Government Economic Policies Caused the Financial Crisis of 2008).  In the wake of the credit crisis that began last September, the U.S. government undertook several measures to stem the panic and restore confidence in the financial industry so it could resume operating at “normal conditions.”  These measures included the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), lowering the federal funds rate to near zero percent, and embarking on quantitative easing programs such as buying Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.  These measures were necessary because a financial crisis demands forceful government intervention to avoid an all-out panic and ensuing depression.  However, as Simon Johnson of the Peterson Institute for International Economics recently testified to the Congressional Oversight Panel (created to oversee the use of TARP funds), “Unless bank regulators limit the direct and indirect risk exposure of US financial institutions to this new supposedly low-risk ‘carry trade,’ we face the very real prospect of another even larger crisis.”

The problem, in the simplest terms, is this:  the government policies that have staved off a depression have driven down the value of the dollar and lowered yields on the safest assets to near zero, while the banking system and those who run it remain largely intact and unchanged; therefore, bankers and investors are encouraged to take on extreme risk once again to achieve acceptable gains and they do this by borrowing dollars generally to buy risky assets, generally in emerging markets that have strong growth potential.  Thus, the asset bubbles that formed in U.S. real estate that caused the 2008 financial crisis appear to be forming again, but rather in non-U.S. assets (see U.S. Current Account Deficit Likely the Cause of Next Financial Crisis).  Johnson points out specific examples, “As the world recovers, asset markets are also turning buoyant. Recently, residential real estate in elite neighborhoods of Hong Kong has sold at $8,000 US per square foot. A 2,500 square foot apartment now costs $20 million. Real estate markets are also showing signs of bubbly behavior in Singapore, China, Brazil, and India.”

Another crisis can be avoided, but it will take forceful government action to reform the U.S. financial industry.  The following is what Johnson believes is the best practice:

Best practice, vis-à-vis saving the banking system in the face of a generalized panic involves three closely connected pieces:

a. Preventing banks from collapsing in an uncontrolled manner: This often involves at least temporary blanket guarantees for bank liabilities, backed by credible fiscal resources. The government’s balance sheet stands behind the financial system. In the canonical emerging market crises of the 1990s—Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand—where the panic was centered on the private sector and its financing arrangements, this commitment of government resources was necessary (but not sufficient) to stop the panic and begin a recovery.

b. Taking over and implementing orderly resolution for banks that are insolvent: In major system crises, this typically involves government interventions that include revoking banking licenses, firing top management, bringing in new teams to handle orderly unwinding, and—importantly—downsizing banks and other failing corporate entities that have become too big to manage. In Korea, nearly half of the top 30 precrisis chaebol were broken up through various versions of an insolvency process (including Daewoo, one of the biggest groups). In Indonesia, leading banks were stripped from the industrial groups that owned them and substantially restructured. In Thailand, not only were more than 50 secondary banks (“finance houses”) closed, but around one-third of the leading
banks were also put through a tough clean-up and downsizing process managed by the government.

c. Addressing immediately underlying weaknesses in corporate governance that created potential vulnerability to crisis: In Korea, the central issue was the governance of nonfinancial chaebol and their relationship to the state-owned banks; in Indonesia, it was the functioning of family-owned groups that owned banks directly; and in Thailand it was the close connections between firms, banks, and politicians. Of the three, Korea made the most progress and was rewarded with the fastest economic recovery.

Lest anyone rush out to sell all of their holding, investors must recognize that bubbles and crises take time to develop.  Even though we can see some early signs that global easy monetary policy is inflating bubbles in certain assets, mainly through dollar devaluation, this does not mean that another crisis is imminent.  What to watch for is whether the current conditions remain unaltered, whether through poor government decisions or external factors, like currency exchange rates, which keep the dollar depressed.

I continue to believe that the U.S. central bank will raise rates in 2010 and, even if Congress fails to act, encourage tougher regulation of banks.  This will bolster the dollar, while likely keeping equity returns muted.  However, such action will help to avoid another crash.  The U.S. will also need to work closely with the other G-20 nations to ensure a coordinated monetary policy that will not disrupt global markets.

To read the full text of Simon Johnson’s testimony, please click the following link:  The Impact of the Troubled Asset Relief Program on the US Financial System and Economy.