U.S. Import Prices -0.5%, Export Prices +0.4% in April 2012

Posted on May 10, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that U.S. import prices declined 0.5 percent in April, following a 1.5 percent increase in March. The April decrease was driven by lower fuel prices which more than offset a small increase in nonfuel prices. The price index for overall exports rose 0.4 percent in April after a 0.8 percent increase the previous month.

For more information, please click on the Inflation Measures page in the menu bar, then scroll down to the Import/Export Prices section.

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U.S. Trade Deficit Balloons 14.1% in March 2012

Posted on May 10, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has reported that the March 2012 international trade deficit rose 14.1 percent from the prior month, to $51.8 billion. Exports increased 2.9 percent, to $186.8 billion, and imports increased 5.2 percent, to $238.6 billion.

Here is a link to the full report: International Trade in Goods and Services March 2012.

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U.S. Initial Jobless Claims at 367,000 in Week Ended May 5, 2012

Posted on May 10, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Department of Labor has reported that initial claims for unemployment insurance were 367,000 in the week ended May 5, 2012.  Once again, the DOL reports this as a decrease from the prior week, in this case by 1,000.  However, as usual the prior week was revised higher to 368,000 from 365,000.  Wouldn’t it be nice if bank accounts worked that way? “No, it’s not overdrawn, just revise last week’s balance higher.”

In any event, thanks to the previous week’s drop in initial claims, the four-week moving average is now trending lower at 379,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week.

Here is the full DOL press release:

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending May 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 367,000, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 368,000. The 4-week moving average was 379,000, a decrease of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average of 384,250.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent for the week ending April 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 2.6 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending April 28 was 3,229,000, a decrease of 61,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,290,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,290,000, a decrease of 10,500 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,300,500.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 338,418 in the week ending May 5, an increase of 4,942 from the previous week. There were 397,737 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent during the week ending April 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week’s unrevised rate of 2.6. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,193,787, a decrease of 99,210 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 3.0 percent and the volume was 3,723,271.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending April 21 was 6,423,383, a decrease of 174,529 from the previous week.

 

Extended benefits were available in Alabama, Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Washington, and West Virginia during the week ending April 21.

Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,204 in the week ending April 28, a decrease of 5 from the prior week. There were 2,226 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, a decrease of 199 from the preceding week.

There were 19,509 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending April 21, a decrease of 472 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 39,682, a decrease of 957 from the prior week.

States reported 2,688,157 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending April 21, a decrease of 36,275 from the prior week. There were 3,415,581 claimants in the comparable week in 2011. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 21 were in Alaska (5.2), Oregon (3.8), Puerto Rico (3.8), California (3.7), Pennsylvania (3.7), Connecticut (3.6), New Jersey (3.6), Rhode Island (3.6), Massachusetts (3.3), and Wisconsin (3.3).

The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 28 were in Indiana (+2,294), Florida (+1,767), Illinois (+1,512), Pennsylvania (+1,121), and New Hampshire (+836), while the largest decreases were in New York (-21,258), Califorina (-6,790), Massachusetts (-2,530), Georgia (-2,110), and Connecticut (-1,708).

 

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS

WEEK ENDING Advance May 5 April 28 Change April 21 Prior Year1
Initial Claims (SA) 367,000 368,000 -1,000 392,000 430,000
Initial Claims (NSA) 338,418 333,476 +4,942 370,632 397,737
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) 379,000 384,250 -5,250 382,750 433,500
 
WEEK ENDING Advance April 28 April 21 Change April 14 Prior Year1
Ins. Unemployment (SA) 3,229,000 3,290,000 -61,000 3,329,000 3,795,000
Ins. Unemployment (NSA) 3,193,787 3,292,997 -99,210 3,425,328 3,723,271
4-Wk Moving Average (SA) 3,290,000 3,300,500 -10,500 3,315,250 3,749,750
Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)2 2.5% 2.6% -0.1 2.6% 3.0%
Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)2
 2.5% 2.6% -0.1 2.7% 3.0%

INITIAL CLAIMS FILED IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

WEEK ENDING
April 28
April 21
Change
Prior Year1
Federal Employees 1,204 1,209 -5 1,617
Newly Discharged Veterans 2,226 2,425 -199 2,280

PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

WEEK ENDING
April 21
April 14
Change
Prior Year1
Regular State 3,283,672 3,416,422 -132,750 3,758,293
Federal Employees (UCFE) 19,509 19,981 -472 29,466
Newly Discharged Veterans (UCX) 39,682 40,639 -957 36,756
EUC 20083 2,688,157 2,724,432 -36,275 3,415,581
Extended Benefits4 350,579 354,883 -4,304 689,009
State Additional Benefits 5 5,745 5,278 +467 26,445
STC / Workshare 6 36,039 36,277 -238 48,026
TOTAL 6,423,383 6,597,912 -174,529 8,003,576

FOOTNOTES
SA – Seasonally Adjusted Data, NSA – Not Seasonally Adjusted Data
1 – Prior year is comparable to most recent data.
2 – Most recent week used covered employment of 127,048,587 as denominator.
3 – EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity. Tier-specific EUC data can be found here: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/persons.xls
4 – Information on the EB program can be found here: http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/extenben.asp
5 – Some states maintain additional benefit programs for those claimants who exhaust regular, extended and emergency benefits. Information on states that participate,
and the extent of benefits paid, can be found starting on page 4-5 of this link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf
6 – Information on STC/Worksharing can be found starting on page 4-9 of the following link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf

 

UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 04/28/2012

STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State Change State Supplied Comment
NY -21,258 Fewer layoffs in the transportation, educational service, and food service industries.
CA -6,790 Fewer layoffs in the service industries.
MA -2,530 No comment.
GA -2,110 Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing, transportation and warehousing, healthcare and social assistance, and trade.
CT -1,708 Fewer layoffs in the educational service industries.
NC -1,570 Fewer layoffs in the food and kindred products, nonclassifiable establishments, textile, electronic, and leather industries.
NJ -1,201 Fewer layoffs in the transportation and warehousing, accommodation and food service, information, manufacturing, and healthcare and social assistance industries.
AZ -1,169 No comment.
MI -1,139 Fewer layoffs in the manufacturing industries.

STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000

State Change State Supplied Comment
IN +2,294 Layoffs in the transportation and manufacturing industries.
FL +1,767 Layoffs in the agriculture, construction, trade, retail, serivce, and manufacturing industry.
IL +1,512 Layoffs in the manufacturing, construction, and administrative support industries.
PA +1,121 Layoffs in the construction, entertainment, lodging, food service, retail, professional, scientific, and technology industries.

State Detail Prior Week
UI Claims Series 1967 to current

 

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U.S. Purchase Mortgage Applications +3.8% in Week Ended May 4, 2012; Trend Still Lower: MBA

Posted on May 9, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that applications for mortgages to purchase a home rose 3.8 percent in the week ended May 4, 2012.  However, the four-week moving average remained lower by 0.82 percent.

The rate on a conventional 30-year fixed rate mortgage hit a new all-time low, dropping to 4.01 percent from 4.05 percent.

The full MBA press release follows:

WASHINGTON, D.C. (May 9, 2012) — Mortgage applications increased 1.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 4, 2012.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 1.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier.  On an unadjusted basis, the Index increased 2.0 percent compared with the previous week.  Increases to the seasonally adjusted Market Composite and Purchase indices were driven by increases in their Conventional components.  Application activity within the Government market decreased for both of these measures from last week.  Likewise, the Refinance Index increased 1.3 percent from the previous week, driven by a 1.8 percent increase to the Conventional Refinance Index, while the Government Refinance Index decreased 2.3 percent.  The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 3.4 percent from one week earlier, spurred by a 5.4 percent increase in the seasonally adjusted Conventional Purchase Index. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 3.8 percent compared with the previous week and was 0.4 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

The four week moving average for the seasonally adjusted Market Index is up 1.13 percent.  The four week moving average is down 0.82 percent for the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index, while this average is up 1.81 percent for the Refinance Index.

The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 72.1 percent of total applications from 72.6 percent the previous week.  This is the lowest refinance share since April 6, 2012.  The government purchase share decreased over the week from 37.0 percent to 35.8 percent of all purchase applications.  This is the lowest government purchase share since March 27, 2009.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.01 percent from 4.05 percent, with points decreasing to 0.41 from  0.44 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.  This is the lowest 30-year fixed interest rate recorded in the history of the survey.   The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,500) decreased to 4.29 percent from 4.32 percent, with points decreasing to 0.36 from 0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the FHA increased to 3.81 percent from 3.80 percent, with points decreasing to 0.45 from 0.50 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.29 percent from 3.31 percent, with points decreasing to 0.32 from 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  This is the lowest 15-year fixed interest rate recorded in the history of the survey.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs decreased to 2.83 percent from 2.87 percent, with points increasing to 0.36 from 0.35 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans.  The effective rate decreased from last week.

If you would like to purchase a subscription of MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey, please visit www.mortgagebankers.org/WeeklyApps, contact mbaresearch@mortgagebankers.org or click here.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990.  Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts.  Base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100.

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U.S. Wholesale Inventories +0.3%, Sales +0.5% in March 2012; Inventories/Sales Ratio at 1.17

Posted on May 9, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that March 2012 wholesale inventories were $480.4 billion, up 0.3 percent from February and up 8.4 percent from one year earlier. Sales were $411.1 billion, up 0.5 percent from February and up 6.5 percent from March 2011.

The March inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.17. The March 2011 ratio was 1.15.

Here is a link to the full report: Monthly Wholesale Trade March 2012.

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NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Rises 2 Points in April 2012, But Only Returns to February 2011 Level

Posted on May 8, 2012 by | Leave a comment

The National Federation of Independent Business has reported that its Index of Small Business Optimism gained 2 points to 94.5 in April 2012, a nice gain on an absolute basis. The April Index is the highest reading since December 2007, the peak of the last expansion. That’s the good news. The bad news is that April’s gain is the same as it was in February 2011 proving a year with no real gains. No surprise, since nothing much happened during that time that would make owners more optimistic about the future.

The full NFIB press release follows:

WASHINGTON, May 8, 2012 – After taking a dip in March, the Index of Small Business Optimism gained 2 points in April, settling at 94.5. The reading is the highest since December 2007, however, April’s gain only returns the Index to its February 2011 level, indicating that in a year, the net gain has been zero. While March did not post strong job creation numbers, labor market indicators did improve, suggesting better job growth in the next few months.

More charts and the full small business optimism report“While the Index remains historically weak, there was good news in the details of April’s report. Job creation plans, job openings and capital spending plans all increased. Hopefully, this performance will hold in the coming months,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “However, GDP and employment growth news has not been good; the Euro debt crisis continues to make news and Congress leaves us on an identical path: huge deficits, a terrifying amount of liquidity at the Fed, and no indication that anything positive will be done. Most likely, there will be only small improvements on Main Street in optimism or hiring and spending this year. With the election six months away, the Index will signal how small firm owners see the economy’s future unfolding—and their outlook will be telling.”

Among the owners surveyed, most remain very satisfied with current inventory holdings. However, owners indicated that they do not plan on adding, consistent with a small deterioration in their expectations for real sales gains in the coming months. The percent of owners reporting positive sales trends quarter on quarter reached the highest level seen since April 2006. This was a major contributing factor to the huge improvement in reported profit trends, an 11 point gain and equal to half the improvement of the Index.
Some other highlights of April’s Optimism Index include:

  • Earnings and Wages: Overall, April was a great report for profits and sales, hopefully the beginning of a solid trend. Reports of positive earnings trends improved by 11 points, settling at a negative 12 percent in April—the best reading since April 2007. The improvement was driven by sales reports, also the highest since April 2007. Not seasonally adjusted, 19 percent of small firm owners reported higher profits (up 5 points), and 37 percent reported profits falling (down 6 points). Profits are the major source of capital for financing hiring and expansion for small firms, making this a very significant and welcome development. Three percent of owners reported reduced worker compensation and 18 percent reported raising compensation, yielding a seasonally adjusted net 14 percent reporting higher worker compensation, the highest reading in 39 months and unchanged from March. A net seasonally adjusted 9 percent plan to raise compensation in the coming months also unchanged from March.
  • Sales: Also a highlight of the April report, the net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales over the past three months gained another 3 points to 4 percent. This comes after a surprising 8 point gain in March, one of the only positive trends for that month. Nineteen (19) percent of owners still cite weak sales as their top business problem, a high reading, but far below the record 33 percent reading from December 2010. Sales are improving broadly in the small business sector, albeit not dramatically. Seasonally unadjusted, 25 percent of all owners reported higher sales, and 30 percent of owners reported lower sales (down 1 point). The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales in the months to come lost 2 points, falling to a net 6 percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted). Forty-one (41) percent of owners (no seasonally adjusted) expect improvement over the next three months (down1 point) and 19 percent expect declines (up 3 points). The improvement in sales trends is not indicative of a strong recovery but is a positive sign for small-business owners.
  • Job Creation: The net change in employment per firm (seasonally adjusted) came in at 0.1; this is down from March but still positive. Seasonally adjusted, 12 percent of owners surveyed added an average of 3.3 workers per firm over the past few months, and 14 percent reduced employment an average of 2.9 workers per firm. The remaining 74 percent of owners made no net change in employment. Forty-seven (47) percent of owners hired or tried to hire in the last three months. Thirty-four (34) percent of owners (or 72 percent of those trying to hire or hiring) reported few or no qualified applicants for positions. While firms have eased lay-offs, they haven’t resumed strong hiring. Unemployment claims remain high and seasonal adjustments are off track as hiring, normally done in March and April, may have occurred earlier in the year. The percent of owners reporting hard to fill job openings rose 2 points to 17 percent, one point below the January 2012 reading which is the highest we’ve reported since June 2008. Hard-to-fill job openings are a strong predictor of the unemployment rate, making the gain in openings a welcome development. The net percent of owners planning to create new jobs is 5 percent, a 5 point increase after taking a plunge in March. Not seasonally adjusted, 18 percent plan to increase employment at their firm (up 3 points), and 5 percent plan reductions (unchanged from March).
  • Inflation: Inflation may become a problem for the small-business community in the months to come. Twenty-six (26) percent of the NFIB owners reported raising their average selling prices in the past three months (up 1 point), and 16 percent reported price reductions (down 1 point). Seasonally adjusted, the net percent raising selling prices was 8 percent, up 2 points from March and 9 points from January. Overall, price hikes were quite pervasive as owners respond to rising input costs (labor and materials) and try to pass those costs on to customers. Twenty-five (25) percent of owners plan on raising average prices in the next few months, while 2 percent plan reductions. Seasonally adjusted, a net 23 percent plan price hikes, up 2 points from March and 9 points higher from December. Price-cutting appears to be fading and this will put upward pressure on the inflation measures.

Today’s report is based on the responses of 1,817 randomly sampled small businesses in NFIB’s membership, surveyed throughout the month of April. Download the complete study at http://www.nfib.com/sbetindex.

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Brazil’s Unemployment Rate Rises to 6.2% in March 2012, Highest Since June 2011

Posted on May 7, 2012 by | Leave a comment

Brazil’s unemployment rate jumped 0.5 percent in March 2012 to 6.2 percent, reaching the highest level seen since June 2011.

The full press release follows:

 

The estimated unemployment rate was 6.2%, having increased by 0.5 percentage points over that of February 2012 (5.7%).  The rate was stable compared to the figure of March 2011 (6.5%).  The unemployed population (1.5 million persons) increased by 8.8% in comparison with that of February (122 thousand persons more looking for a job). The estimate remained over that of March last year. The employed population (22.6 million) remained stable compared with the February figure. In comparison with March 2011, there was increase of 1.6% of this estimate (more 367 thousand persons employed).  The number of workers with an employment record card signed in the private sector (11.1 million) did not record change in comparison with February.  In the annual comparison, there was increase (3.7%), representing an addition of 394 thousand job posts with a signed employment record card.

The average real income usually earned by the employed population (R$ 1,728.40, the highest figure for a month of March since year 2002) recorded hike of 1.6% over February 2012 and of 5.6% over March last year.  The volume of real income usually earned (R$ 39.4 billion) increased by 2.0% in relation to that of February and by 7.0% in relation to that of March 2011. The volume of real income earned by the employed population (R$ 38.9 billion), estimated in February 2012, increased 1.2% in the month and 6.2% in the year.

The Monthly Employment Survey is conducted in the metropolitan areas of Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Porto Alegre. The complete publication is available at

www.ibge.gov.br/english/estatistica/indicadores/trabalhoerendimento/pme_nova .

 

 

Unemployment increased in the metropolitan area of RJ over figure of March 2011 

The unemployment rate (proportion of unemployed persons in relation to the economically-active population, which is formed by employed and unemployed persons) was estimated at 6.2% for the group of six metropolitan areas. By area, in the monthly analysis, there was significant change of the unemployment rate in the metropolitan areas of Recife (with a change from 5.1% to 6.2%) and Porto Alegre (from 4.1% to 5.2%). In comparison with March 2011, there was decline in the metropolitan areas of Salvador and Recife (2.4 and 1.4 percentage points, respectively). In the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro, this estimate increased to 1.0 percentage points, and remained stable in the other areas.

 

In the analysis by month, the number of unemployed persons (persons without a job trying to join the labor market) increased in the metropolitan areas of Porto Alegre (29.6%) and Recife (21.7%) and was stable in the other areas surveyed. Compared with March last year, there was decrease of the number of unemployed persons in the metropolitan areas of Salvador (21.9%) and Recife (16.4%). There was increase of this estimate in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro (22.8%). In the metropolitan areas of Belo Horizonte, São Paulo and Porto Alegre, there was stability.

Employment level stays at 53.6%   

The employment level (proportion of employed persons in relation to persons at active age), estimated at 53.6% in the total of six metropolitan areas, remained stable compared to February 2012 and March 2011. Stability also occurred in the analysis by area, in the monthly comparison, in all the metropolitan areas.  Compared with the figure of March 2011, in the metropolitan area of Belo Horizonte, this indicator increased by 1.3 percentage points.

 

The analysis of the number of employed persons, by groups of economic activity from February to March 2012, showed positive change in the group Mining and quarrying industry, manufacturing industry and distribution of electricity, gas and water (more 108 thousand persons, 3.0%).   The comparison with March last year showed positive change of 3.6% in Education, health and public administration (125 thousand persons more) and decline of 5.9% in Domestic services (94 thousand persons less).

 

In the monthly comparison, average income increased in four of the six areas surveyed

 

In the analysis by area, the average real income earned by the employed population (R$ 1,728.40 in the group of six areas) increased compared with the figure in February in Belo Horizonte (4.7%), São Paulo (2.2%), Porto Alegre (2.2%) and Recife (1.2%) and recorded decline of 05.% in Salvador. There was stability in the metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro. In comparison with March last year, the average yield increased in all the metropolitan areas.

In the classification by activity group, the biggest increase of the average real income usually earned in relation to March 2011 was 9.7%, relative to Other services:

In the classification by employment type, the biggest increase in the average real income usually earned, in comparison with March 2011, was that of self-employed persons (7.1%):  

 

 

 

 

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