Raw Finance

Common sense economic and financial industry analysis for everyone, from banking and investment professionals to individual investors.

Inflation Measures

Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index – September 2009

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.2 percent in September, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics reported today. The increase was less than the 0.4
percent rise in August. The index has decreased 1.3 percent over the
last 12 months on a not seasonally adjusted basis.

The seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index was broad
based, although tempered by a decline in the food index. The all
items less food and energy index increased 0.2 percent in September
after increasing 0.1 percent in each of the previous two months.
Contributing to this increase were advances in the indexes for
lodging away from home, medical care, new vehicles, used cars and
trucks, and public transportation. The increase occurred despite
declines in the indexes for rent and owners’ equivalent rent, the
first decreases in those indexes since 1992. The energy index also
increased in September, as increases in the indexes for gasoline,
fuel oil and electricity more than offset a decline in the index for
natural gas.

In contrast to these increases, the food index declined, falling for
the sixth time in the last eight months. The index for food away from
home increased, but the food at home index declined as the indexes
for fruits and vegetables and for meats, poultry, fish and eggs fell
sharply. Both the food and energy indexes have declined over the past
12 months. The decline in the food index is the first 12-month
decrease in that index in over 40 years.

Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city
average

Seasonally adjusted changes from
preceding month
Un-
adjusted
12-mos.
Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. ended
2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009 Sep.
2009

All items……………… -.1 .0 .1 .7 .0 .4 .2 -1.3
Food…………………. -.1 -.2 -.2 .0 -.3 .1 -.1 -.2
Food at home…………. -.4 -.6 -.5 .0 -.5 .0 -.3 -2.5
Food away from home (1).. .1 .3 .1 .1 .1 .1 .1 2.6
Energy……………….. -3.0 -2.4 .2 7.4 -.4 4.6 .6 -21.6
Energy commodities……. -4.7 -2.6 2.3 16.2 -.4 8.5 1.1 -30.1
Gasoline (all types)…. -4.0 -2.8 3.1 17.3 -.8 9.1 1.0 -29.7
Fuel oil……………. -8.5 -.3 -3.3 4.8 -1.5 6.2 1.5 -36.0
Energy services………. -1.4 -2.2 -1.7 -1.2 -.3 .0 .1 -8.0
Electricity…………. -.2 -.6 -.4 -1.9 -.6 -.1 .6 -.1
Utility (piped) gas
service………….. -4.8 -7.0 -5.7 1.3 .9 .4 -1.7 -28.0
All items less food and
energy…………….. .2 .3 .1 .2 .1 .1 .2 1.5
Commodities less food and
energy commodities…. .4 .5 .2 .3 .2 -.3 .3 1.6
New vehicles………… .6 .4 .5 .7 .5 -1.3 .4 1.6
Used cars and trucks…. -1.7 -.1 1.0 .9 .0 1.9 1.6 -2.7
Apparel…………….. -.2 -.2 -.2 .7 .6 -.1 .1 1.1
Medical care commodities .2 .3 .4 .1 -.1 .5 .6 4.1
Services less energy
services………….. .1 .2 .1 .1 .0 .2 .1 1.5
Shelter…………….. .0 .2 .1 .1 -.2 .1 .0 .7
Transportation services -.1 .3 -.1 -.1 .5 .6 .7 2.0
Medical care services… .2 .4 .3 .2 .3 .2 .4 3.3

1 Not seasonally adjusted.

Consumer Price Index Data for September 2009

Food

After rising 0.1 percent in August, the food index declined 0.1
percent in September. The index for food away from home rose 0.1
percent while the food at home index declined 0.3 percent, its eighth
decline in the last 10 months. The September decrease was driven by
declines in the indexes for fruits and vegetables, which fell 1.2
percent, and for meats, poultry, fish and eggs, which decreased 1.0
percent. The index for nonalcoholic beverages was unchanged in
September, while the other grocery store food groups posted
increases. After declining for nine straight months, the index for
dairy and related products rose 0.5 percent in September. The cereals
and bakery products index increased 0.3 percent and the index for
other food at home rose 0.1 percent. Over the past year, the food at
home index has decreased 2.5 percent, with the fruits and vegetables,
dairy, and meat groups all posting significant declines. The food
index has declined 0.2 percent since September 2008, the first 12-
month decrease since April 1967.

Energy

The energy index rose 0.6 percent in September after increasing 4.6
percent in August. The index for energy commodities rose 1.1 percent,
with the gasoline index increasing 1.0 percent. (Before seasonal
adjustment, gasoline prices fell 2.1 percent in September.) The index
for energy services, which was unchanged in August, rose 0.1 percent
in September. The electricity index rose 0.6 percent while the index
for natural gas declined 1.7 percent. Over the past 12 months, the
energy index has fallen 21.6 percent with all its major components
declining. The gasoline index decreased 29.7 percent, the index for
natural gas declined 28.0 percent, and the electricity index fell 0.1
percent.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in
September after increasing 0.1 percent in both July and August. One
contributor to the increase was the medical care index, which rose
0.4 percent in September. The index for medical care commodities rose
0.6 percent in September, with the prescription drugs index rising
0.6 percent and the index for nonprescription drugs advancing 1.1
percent. Several transportation indexes contributed to the increase
in the index for all items less food and energy. The new vehicles
index, which declined 1.3 percent in August, rose 0.4 percent in
September. The index for used cars and trucks increased sharply for
the second month in a row, rising 1.6 percent, and the index for
public transportation rose 2.1 percent as the airline fares index
increased 3.4 percent. The tobacco index rose 1.0 percent in
September and has risen 26.1 percent since February. The shelter
index was unchanged in September, as a 1.5 percent increase in the
index for lodging away from home was offset by declines of 0.1
percent in the heavily weighted rent and owners’ equivalent rent
indexes. For the past 12 months, the index for all items less food
and energy has risen 1.5 percent. The indexes for shelter, new
vehicles, medical care and tobacco have all risen during the period,
while the indexes for used cars and trucks and public transportation
have declined.

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased
1.3 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 215.969
(1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.1 percent prior
to seasonal adjustment.

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) decreased 1.7 percent over the last 12 months to an index
level of 211.322 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased
0.1 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
decreased 1.4 percent over the last 12 months. For the month, the
index increased 0.1 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis.
Please note that the indexes for the post-2007 period are subject to
revision.

The Consumer Price Index for October 2009 is scheduled to be released
on Wednesday, November 18, 2009, at 8:30 a.m. (EST)

Data extracted on: October 15, 2009 (8:33:40 PM)

Consumer Price Index – All Urban Consumers
1 Month Percent Change

Series Id:    CUSR0000SA0
Seasonally Adjusted
Area:         U.S. city average
Item:         All items
Base Period:  1982-84=100

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual HALF1 HALF2
1999 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
2000 0.3 0.4 0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2
2001 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.4 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1
2002 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
2003 0.4 0.5 0.2 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3
2004 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.0
2005 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.6 0.7 1.4 0.3 -0.4 -0.1
2006 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 0.5
2007 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.3
2008 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.8 -1.7 -0.8
2009 0.3 0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.4 0.2

[SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Economic Statistics]

Consumer Price Index (9 Countries)

Consumer price indexes in nine countries,
                                      percent change from same period of previous year, 1995-2009

                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              United                                                              Switzer-    United
                    Period    States    Canada     Japan    France   Germany     Italy    Sweden      land   Kingdom
                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      1995       2.8       2.2      -0.1       1.8       1.8       5.3       2.5       1.8       3.5
                      1996       3.0       1.5       0.1       2.0       1.4       4.0       0.5       0.8       2.4
                      1997       2.3       1.7       1.9       1.2       1.9       2.0       0.7       0.5       3.1
                      1998       1.6       1.0       0.6       0.7       1.0       2.0      -0.3       0.0       3.4
                      1999       2.2       1.8      -0.3       0.5       0.6       1.7       0.5       0.9       1.5
                      2000       3.4       2.7      -0.8       1.7       1.4       2.5       0.9       1.5       3.0
                      2001       2.8       2.5      -0.7       1.7       1.9       2.7       2.4       1.0       1.8
                      2002       1.6       2.2      -0.9       1.9       1.5       2.5       2.2       0.6       1.7
                      2003       2.3       2.8      -0.3       2.1       1.0       2.7       1.9       0.6       2.9
                      2004       2.7       1.8       0.0       2.1       1.7       2.2       0.4       0.8       3.0
                      2005       3.4       2.2      -0.3       1.8       1.5       2.0       0.5       1.1       2.8
                      2006       3.2       2.0       0.3       1.6       1.6       2.1       1.4       1.1       3.2 

                      2007       2.8       2.2       0.0       1.5       2.3       1.8       2.2       0.7       4.3
                       I         2.4       1.8      -0.1       1.2       1.8       1.7       1.9       0.1       4.5
                       II        2.7       2.2      -0.1       1.2       2.0       1.6       1.8       0.5       4.4
                       III       2.4       2.1      -0.1       1.3       2.3       1.6       1.9       0.7       3.9
                       IV        4.0       2.4       0.5       2.3       3.0       2.4       3.1       1.7       4.2 

                      2008       3.8       2.3       1.4       2.8       2.6       3.3       3.4       2.5       4.0
                       I         4.1       1.8       1.0       2.9       2.9       3.0       3.2       2.5       4.0
                       II        4.4       2.4       1.4       3.3       2.9       3.6       3.9       2.7       4.4
                       III       5.3       3.4       2.2       3.3       3.1       4.0       4.4       2.9       4.9
                       IV        1.6       1.9       1.0       1.8       1.7       2.8       2.4       1.6       2.7 

                      2009
                       I         0.0       1.2      -0.1       0.6       0.8       1.5       0.8       0.0      -0.1
                       II       -1.2       0.1      -1.0      -0.2       0.3       0.9      -0.5      -0.7      -1.3 

                       Jan       0.0       1.1       0.0       0.7       0.9       1.7       1.3       0.2       0.1
                       Feb       0.2       1.4      -0.1       0.9       1.0       1.6       0.9       0.2       0.0
                       Mar      -0.4       1.2      -0.3       0.3       0.5       1.2       0.2      -0.4      -0.4
                       Apr      -0.7       0.4      -0.1       0.1       0.7       1.2      -0.1      -0.3      -1.2
                       May      -1.3       0.1      -1.1      -0.3       0.0       0.9      -0.5      -1.0      -1.1
                       Jun      -1.4      -0.3      -1.8      -0.5       0.1       0.5      -0.8      -1.0      -1.6
                     ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                     NOTE:  These percent changes are based on national consumer price indexes as published by each
                     country. The data have not been adjusted for comparability. National differences exist, for
                     example, with respect to population coverage, frequency of market basket weight changes, and
                     treatment of homeowner costs. The population coverage for these consumer price indexes includes
                     all households, except for the United States, Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom. For
                     further qualifications and historical data, see "Consumer Price Indexes, 16 Countries, Annual,

                                                              SEE NEXT PAGE

                                                               - Page 2 -

                     1950-2008," May 08, 2009. See http://www.bls.gov/ilc/flscpian.pdf.

                     PREPARED BY: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
                     Division of International Labor Comparisons, August 7, 2009.

Producer Price Index

  PRODUCER PRICE INDEXES - SEPTEMBER 2009

The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods declined 0.6 percent in September, seasonally
adjusted, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. This
decrease followed a 1.7-percent rise in August and a 0.9-percent decline in July. In September, at
the earlier stages of processing, prices received by manufacturers of intermediate goods moved
up 0.2 percent and the crude goods index fell 2.1 percent. On an unadjusted basis, from
September 2008 to September 2009, prices for finished goods fell 4.8 percent, the tenth
consecutive month of year-over-year declines. (See table A.)

Table A. Monthly and 12-month percent changes in selected stage-of-processing price indexes, seasonally adjusted
Month Finished goods Intermediate
goods
Crude
goods
Total Foods Energy Except foods
and energy
Change in
finished goods
from 12 months
ago (unadj.)
2008
Sept. -0.1 0.0 -1.3 0.4 8.8 -0.6 -7.3
Oct. -2.6 0.1 -12.8 0.5 5.2 -4.2 -16.1
Nov. -2.7 -0.5 -12.4 0.0 0.4 -4.8 -13.1
Dec. -1.8 -1.2 -9.1 0.3 -0.9 -4.1 -5.6
2009
Jan. 0.9 0.1 4.1 0.2 -0.9 -0.2 -1.5
Feb. -0.1 -1.6 0.9 0.1 -1.4 -0.8 -6.1
Mar. -0.9 -0.8 -4.7 0.1 -3.4 -1.5 -0.4
Apr. 0.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 -3.5 0.1 2.3
May(1) 0.2 -1.5 2.7 -0.1 -4.8 0.6 3.5
June(1) 1.6 1.1 5.6 0.5 -4.6 1.0 5.2
July -0.9 -1.5 -2.4 -0.1 -6.8 -0.2 -4.5
Aug. 1.7 0.4 8.0 0.2 -4.3 1.8 3.8
Sept. -0.6 -0.1 -2.4 -0.1 -4.8 0.2 -2.1
Footnotes
(1) Some of the figures shown above and elsewhere in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for May 2009 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents.
Stage-of-Processing Analysis

Finished goods

In September, over ninety percent of the finished goods decrease was the result of lower energy
prices, which moved down 2.4 percent. The indexes for finished goods less foods and energy and
for finished consumer foods also contributed to the decline in finished goods prices, both edging
down 0.1 percent. 

Finished energy:  The index for finished energy goods fell 2.4 percent in September compared
with an 8.0-percent surge a month earlier. Almost eighty percent of the decrease can be
attributed to gasoline prices, which moved down 5.4 percent. Falling prices for home heating oil
and residential natural gas also contributed to the decline in the finished energy goods index.
(See table 2.)  

Finished core:  Prices for finished goods less foods and energy edged down 0.1 percent in
September following a 0.2-percent increase in August. Leading the decline, the index for light
motor trucks moved down 1.4 percent. Lower prices for pet food also impacted the finished core
index.

Finished foods:  Prices for finished consumer foods inched down 0.1 percent in September after
rising 0.4 percent in August. The index for eggs for fresh use, which declined 9.8 percent, led the
decrease in finished consumer food prices.  

Intermediate goods

The Producer Price Index for Intermediate Materials, Supplies, and Components moved up 0.2
percent in September, its second consecutive monthly increase. This advance can be attributed to
prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy, which rose 0.9 percent. By contrast, the
index for intermediate energy goods fell 2.1 percent, and prices for intermediate foods and feeds
declined 0.5 percent. On a 12-month basis, the intermediate goods index fell 11.7 percent in
September. This was the second consecutive month of slowing year-over-year declines after a
record 15.1-percent drop for the 12-months ended July 2009. (See table B.)

Intermediate core:  Prices for intermediate materials less foods and energy climbed 0.9 percent
in September, their fourth consecutive monthly increase. Accounting for about a quarter of the
September advance, the index for primary basic organic chemicals rose 8.1 percent. Higher
prices for hot rolled steel sheet and strip and for primary nonferrous metals also were factors in
the intermediate core increase. (See table 2.)

Crude goods

The Producer Price Index for Crude Materials for Further Processing declined 2.1 percent in
September. In the third quarter of 2009, crude material prices dropped 3.0 percent after rising
11.5 percent during the second quarter. In September, monthly decreases of 5.4 percent in the
index for crude energy materials and 1.9 percent for prices of crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs
outweighed a 3.6-percent increase in the index for crude nonfood materials less energy. (See
table B.)

Crude energy:  The index for crude energy materials declined 5.4 percent in September and 5.1
percent from June to September. By comparison, for the 3-month period ended in June, prices
jumped 20.6 percent.  Accounting for most of the monthly September decrease, the natural gas
index fell 13.8 percent. Lower prices for both crude petroleum and coal also contributed to the
decline in the crude energy materials index. (See table 2.)

Crude foods:  The index for crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs fell 1.9 percent in September. This
index moved down 8.6 percent in the most recent 3-month period, compared with a 4.1-percent
advance in the previous 3-month period. In September, a 19.0-percent drop in soybean prices led
the decline in the crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs index. Falling slaughter poultry prices also
were a factor in this decrease.

Table B. Monthly and 12-month percent changes in selected price indexes for intermediate goods and crude goods, seasonally adjusted
Month Intermediate goods Crude goods
Foods Energy Except
foods
and energy
Change in
intermediate
goods from
12 months
ago (unadj.)
Foods Energy Except
foods
and energy
Change in
crude
goods from
12 months
ago (unadj.)
2008
Sept. -2.1 -2.4 0.1 15.3 -1.3 -10.4 -9.7 24.2
Oct. -5.1 -10.7 -2.1 9.8 -10.5 -19.4 -17.9 0.1
Nov. -2.6 -13.4 -2.4 1.7 -1.3 -20.1 -18.8 -18.8
Dec. -3.8 -10.7 -2.4 -2.3 -5.6 -6.9 -1.5 -24.6
2009
Jan. -1.5 2.8 -0.8 -3.6 0.9 -5.2 1.3 -27.7
Feb. -0.8 -1.2 -0.7 -5.2 -3.3 -12.1 -0.3 -34.5
Mar. -0.8 -5.5 -0.5 -8.9 -1.7 0.5 -0.9 -38.9
Apr. 0.6 1.9 -0.5 -10.0 4.0 1.2 0.6 -40.3
May(1) 1.3 3.6 -0.2 -11.7 0.4 6.1 4.7 -41.5
June(1) 1.3 4.7 0.1 -12.5 -0.3 12.3 2.8 -40.0
July -2.0 -1.4 0.2 -15.1 -6.1 -6.2 2.9 -44.8
Aug. 0.3 7.1 0.6 -12.3 -0.8 6.9 6.0 -35.2
Sept. -0.5 -2.1 0.9 -11.7 -1.9 -5.4 3.6 -31.5
Footnotes
(1) Some of the figures shown above and elsewhere in this release may differ from those previously reported because data for May 2009 have been revised to reflect the availability of late reports and corrections by respondents.
Services Analysis

Total trade industries:  The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of Total Trade Industries
fell 0.2 percent in September, its third consecutive monthly decline. (Trade indexes measure
changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) The September decrease was led by a
1.2-percent drop in margins received by wholesale trade industries. The margin indexes for both
discount department stores and for electronic shopping and mail-order houses also fell in
September, contributing to decreasing margins received by total trade industries.

Transportation and warehousing industries:  The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of
Total Transportation and Warehousing Industries turned down 0.7 percent in September after
increasing in each of the previous three months. About two-thirds of the decrease can be traced
to a 3.2-percent drop in prices received by the industry for scheduled passenger air
transportation. The industry indexes for local general freight trucking and for specialized freight
trucking of new goods also declined in September.

Traditional service industries:  The Producer Price Index for the Net Output of Total
Traditional Service Industries fell 0.2 percent in September, its first decline since March.
Leading the September decrease, prices received by the industry for non-casino hotels and
motels dropped 9.4 percent.  The industry indexes for commercial banking, software publishers,
and cellular and other wireless carriers also fell in September.
____________
The Producer Price Index for October 2009 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday,
November 17, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. (EST).

The PDF version of the news release

Table of Contents

Last Modified Date: October 20, 2009

Producer Price Index-Commodities
1 Month Percent Change

Series Id:  WPSSOP3000
Seasonally Adjusted
Group:      Stage of processing
Item:       Finished goods
Base Date:  198200

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1999 0.3(R) -0.4(R) 0.2(R) 0.5(R) 0.2(R) 0.1(R) 0.2(R) 0.6(R) 0.7(R) -0.1(R) 0.4(R) 0.2(R)
2000 0.0(R) 1.0 0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.8 0.1 -0.2 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.2
2001 0.9 0.1 -0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.4 -1.2 0.4 0.4 -1.6 -0.4 -0.4
2002 -0.2 0.2 0.6 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.2
2003 1.0 1.1 0.9 -1.3 -0.2 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.6 -0.1 0.3
2004 0.6 -0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6 0.6 -0.5
2005 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.8 0.8 1.7 0.9 -1.0 0.6
2006 0.6 -1.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.9 -1.3 -1.0 1.1 0.6
2007 -0.4 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.6 -0.2 0.7 -0.6 0.7 0.7 2.4 -0.5
2008 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 -0.5 -0.1 -2.6 -2.7 -1.8
2009 0.9 -0.1 -0.9 0.4 0.2 1.6(P) -0.9(P) 1.7(P) -0.6(P)
R : Revised
P : Preliminary. All indexes are subject to revision four months after original publication.

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