ECONOMIC GROWTH INDICATORS
Gross Domestic Product
Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and Annual 2011 (advance estimate)
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 1.8 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page
4). The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on
February 29, 2012.
The increase in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected positive contributions from private
inventory investment, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, residential fixed investment,
and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal
government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased.
The acceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private
inventory investment and accelerations in PCE and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset
by a deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, a downturn in federal government spending, an
acceleration in imports, and a larger decrease in state and local government spending.
_________________
FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted
annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights
related to this release.
_________________
Final sales of computers added 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP
after adding 0.22 percentage point to the third-quarter change. Motor vehicle output added 0.30
percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.12 percentage point to the
third-quarter change.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.0 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.0 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the third.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.7 percent in the third. Durable goods increased 14.8 percent, compared with an
increase of 5.7 percent. Nondurable goods increased 1.7 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.5
percent. Services increased 0.2 percent, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent.
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 1.7 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with
an increase of 15.7 percent in the third. Nonresidential structures decreased 7.2 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 14.4 percent. Equipment and software increased 5.2 percent, compared with an increase of
16.2 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 10.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.3
percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 4.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the same increase
as in the third. Real imports of goods and services increased 4.4 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 7.3 percent
in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 2.1 percent in the third. National defense decreased
12.5 percent, in contrast to an increase of 5.0 percent. Nondefense increased 4.2 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 3.8 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 2.6 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.6 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 1.94 percentage points to the fourth-quarter change
in real GDP after subtracting 1.35 percentage points from the third-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $56.0 billion in the fourth quarter, following a decrease of $2.0 billion in the third
quarter and an increase of $39.1 billion in the second.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 0.8
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 3.2 percent in the third.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 2.8 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the
third.
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $82.6 billion (2.6 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $24.3 billion (0.8 percent) in the third.
Personal current taxes increased $40.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of
$12.3 billion in the third.
Disposable personal income increased $42.7 billion (1.5 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of $11.9 billion (0.4 percent) in the third. Real disposable personal income increased
0.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.9 percent.
Personal outlays increased $69.9 billion (2.5 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $112.0 billion (4.1 percent) in the third. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $429.3 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $456.5 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.7 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with 3.9 percent in the third. For a comparison of personal saving in
BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow
of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.
Current-dollar GDP
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.2 percent, or $118.2 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $15,294.3 billion. In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 4.4 percent, or $163.3 billion.
2011 GDP
Real GDP increased 1.7 percent in 2011 (that is, from the 2010 annual level to the 2011 annual
level), compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010.
The increase in real GDP in 2011 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by
negative contributions from state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and
federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
The deceleration in real GDP in 2011 primarily reflected downturns in private inventory
investment and in federal government spending and a deceleration in exports that were partly offset by a
deceleration in imports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent in 2011, compared with an
increase of 1.5 percent in 2010.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.9 percent, or $561.2 billion, in 2011, compared with an increase
of 4.2 percent, or $587.5 billion, in 2010.
During 2011 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2011),
real GDP increased 1.6 percent. Real GDP increased 3.1 percent during 2010. The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 2.5 percent during 2011, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent during
2010.
________________
BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is
provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."
________________
* * *
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- February 29, 2012, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2011 (Second Estimate)
Release dates in 2012
Gross Domestic Product
11: IV and 2011 annual 2012: I 2012: II 2012: III
Advance... January 27 April 27 July 27 October 26
Second.... February 29 May 31 August 29 November 29
Third..... March 29 June 28 September 27 December 20
Corporate Profits
Preliminary... ... May 31 August 29 November 29
Revised....... March 29 June 28 September 27 December 20
Retail Sales (Consumer Spending)
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES
Retail Sales Report for December 2011
Retail Sales Report for November 2011
Retail Sales Report for October 2011
Retail Sales Report for September 2011
Retail Sales Report for August 2011
Retail Sales Report for July 2011
Retail Sales Report for June 2011
Retail Sales Report for May 2011
Retail Sales Report for April 2011
Retail Sales Report for March 2011
Retail Sales Report for February 2011
Retail Sales Report for January 2011
Retail Sales Report for December 2010
Retail Sales Report for November 2010
Retail Sales Report for October 2010
Productivity
PRODUCTIVITY AND COSTS
Fourth Quarter and Annual Averages 2011, Preliminary
Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased at a 0.7 percent
annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2011, the U.S. Bureau of Labor
Statistics reported today. The gain in productivity reflects increases of
3.6 percent in output and 2.9 percent in hours worked. (All quarterly
percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annual rates.)
From the fourth quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2011,
productivity grew 0.5 percent, as output rose 2.3 percent and hours rose
1.8 percent. (See table A.) Annual average productivity increased 0.7
percent from 2010 to 2011. (See table C.)
Labor productivity, or output per hour, is calculated by dividing an index
of real output by an index of hours worked of all persons, including
employees, proprietors, and unpaid family workers.
Unit labor costs in nonfarm businesses increased 1.2 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2011, as productivity grew at a slower rate (0.7 percent) than
hourly compensation (1.9 percent). Unit labor costs rose 1.3 percent over
the last four quarters. (See table A.) Annual average unit labor costs
increased 1.2 percent from 2010 to 2011. (See table C.)
BLS defines unit labor costs as the ratio of hourly compensation to labor
productivity; increases in hourly compensation tend to increase unit labor
costs and increases in output per hour tend to reduce them.
Manufacturing sector productivity declined 0.4 percent in the fourth
quarter of 2011, as output rose 3.8 percent and hours worked increased 4.2
percent; this is the largest quarterly gain in hours worked since the
fourth quarter of 2005 (4.8 percent). Over the last four quarters,
manufacturing productivity increased 1.7 percent. Annual average
productivity grew 2.8 percent from 2010 to 2011. Unit labor costs in
manufacturing increased 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011 but
decreased 1.1 percent from the same quarter a year ago. (See tables A, C
and 3.)
The data sources and methods used in the preparation of the manufacturing
output series differ from those used in preparing the business and nonfarm
business output series, and these measures are not directly comparable.
See Technical Notes for further information on data sources.
Table C presents annual averages for the most recent five years for the
nonfarm business sector and total manufacturing sector. Nonfarm business
sector productivity grew 0.7 percent in 2011, as output and hours
increased 2.4 percent and 1.7 percent, respectively. The increase in hours
worked is the first annual increase in the measure since 2007. Because
productivity grew more slowly than hourly compensation (1.9 percent), unit
labor costs rose in 2011(1.2 percent). Real hourly compensation, which
takes into account changes in consumer prices, fell 1.2 percent in 2011--
the largest decline in the annual series since a 1.7 percent decline in
1989.
In the manufacturing sector, productivity grew 2.8 percent in 2011,
reflecting a 4.9 percent increase in output combined with a 2.0 percent
increase in hours; this is the largest annual increase in manufacturing
sector hours since a 2.3 percent gain in 1994. Unit labor costs in the
manufacturing sector fell 1.3 percent in 2011.
Revised measures
Revised and previous measures for the third quarter of 2011 are shown in
tables B and D and cover the following major sectors: nonfarm business,
business, manufacturing, and nonfinancial corporations. Measures for the
nonfinancial corporate sector include historically revised gross product
of nonfinancial corporate business in chained (2005) dollars, published
December 22, 2011 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S.
Department of Commerce.
In the third quarter of 2011, nonfarm business productivity growth was 1.9
percent, reflecting a downward revision to output and a slight upward
revision to hours. (See table B.) Unit labor costs for the nonfarm
business sector fell 2.1 percent in the third quarter, less than
previously reported.
In the nonfinancial corporate (NFC) sector, quarterly percent changes in
productivity and unit labor costs were not revised for the third quarter,
although indexes for these and other measures related to output were
revised historically.
Effective with this release, measures for the NFC sector, previously
beginning in 1958, have been extended back to 1947. These newly-introduced
data for the pre-1958 period are based upon the same methodology and data
sources as those for 1958 forward. Nonfinancial corporate sector
productivity grew at a 2.4 percent average annual rate from 1947 to 2010.
Quarterly and annual data for all sectors from 2009 to 2011 appear in
tables 1-6 and revised historical annual data for the nonfinancial
corporate sector in appendix table 1. Full historical measures can be
found on the productivity and costs home page at
http://www.bls.gov/lpc/#data.
___________
The revised Productivity and Costs press release for the fourth quarter
2011 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, March 7, 2012 at 8:30 a.m.
(EST).
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Data in this release do not reflect the annual benchmark revision of the
BLS Current Employment Statistics program data to be released February 3,
2012. This benchmark will be incorporated in our next release on March 7,
2012.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
======================================================================================================
Table A. Preliminary fourth-quarter 2011 measures: percent change from previous quarter at annual rate
(Q to Q) and from same quarter a year ago (Y to Y)
Sector Nonfarm Durable Nondurable
Business Business Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing
Q to Q Y to Y Q to Q Y to Y Q to Q Y to Y Q to Q Y to Y Q to Q Y to Y
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Productivity 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.4 1.7 -0.4 3.0 1.3 1.6
Output 3.6 2.3 3.5 2.0 3.8 4.3 6.3 7.4 1.5 1.2
Hours 2.9 1.8 2.9 1.8 4.2 2.5 6.7 4.3 0.2 -0.4
Hourly
compensation 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.2 -0.2 2.7 1.8
Real hourly
compensation 1.0 -1.5 1.1 -1.6 0.3 -2.6 -0.8 -3.4 1.7 -1.5
Unit labor
costs 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 -1.1 0.6 -3.0 1.4 0.2
======================================================================================================
Table B. Revised and previous measures: third quarter 2011
Sector Nonfarm Durable Nondurable
Business Business Manufacturing Manufacturing Manufacturing
Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change, annual rate
Productivity 1.9 2.3 1.5 1.9 5.3 5.0 8.7 9.5 1.6 0.1
Output 2.8 3.2 2.7 3.0 5.0 4.6 7.8 8.3 2.3 1.0
Hours 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -1.1 0.6 0.9
Hourly
compensation -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.2 -1.2 -1.3
Real hourly
compensation -3.2 -3.2 -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -3.4 -3.1 -2.8 -4.1 -4.2
Unit labor
costs -2.1 -2.5 -2.1 -2.4 -5.6 -5.1 -8.2 -8.5 -2.8 -1.4
======================================================================================================
Table C. Annual average changes in productivity and related measures: 2007-2011
Sector Nonfarm Business Manufacturing
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 | 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
--------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------
Productivity 1.5 0.6 2.3 4.1 0.7 | 3.9 -0.5 0.5 6.1 2.8
Output 2.1 -1.5 -5.1 4.0 2.4 | 2.2 -4.4 -12.5 6.0 4.9
Hours 0.6 -2.1 -7.2 -0.1 1.7 | -1.7 -4.0 -13.0 0.0 2.0
Hourly |
compensation 4.0 3.4 1.6 2.1 1.9 | 3.2 4.3 4.5 1.6 1.5
Real hourly |
compensation 1.1 -0.4 2.0 0.4 -1.2 | 0.4 0.4 4.9 0.0 -1.7
Unit labor costs 2.4 2.8 -0.7 -2.0 1.2 | -0.7 4.8 4.0 -4.2 -1.3
======================================================================================================
Table D. Nonfinancial corporations: revised third-quarter 2011 productivity and cost measures
Real
Hourly hourly Unit Implicit
Produc- compen- compen- labor Unit price
tivity Output Hours sation sation costs profits deflator
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent change, annual rate, third quarter 2011
Revised -2.6 -0.8 1.9 0.3 -2.7 3.0 7.7 3.8
Previous -2.6 -0.8 1.9 0.3 -2.6 3.0 7.5 3.7
======================================================================================================
- Technical notes
- Table 1. Business sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, unit labor costs, and prices, seasonally adjusted
- Table 2. Nonfarm business sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, unit labor costs, and prices, seasonally adjusted
- Table 3. Manufacturing sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, and unit labor costs, seasonally adjusted
- Table 4. Durable manufacturing sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, and unit labor costs, seasonally adjusted
- Table 5. Nondurable manufacturing sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, and unit labor costs, seasonally adjusted
- Table 6. Nonfinancial corporate sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, unit labor costs, unit profits, and prices, seasonally adjusted
- Sources and footnotes for tables
- Appendix table 1. Nonfinancial corporate sector: Productivity, hourly compensation, unit labor costs, unit profits, and prices
- HTML version of the entire news release
The PDF version of the news release
Table of Contents
Last Modified Date: February 02, 2012
Major Sector Productivity and Costs Index
Data extracted on: February 2, 2012 (9:33:14 AM)
Major Sector Productivity and Costs
Series Id: PRS85006092
Sector: Nonfarm Business
Measure: Labor Productivity (Output Per Hour)
Duration: % change quarter ago, at annual rate
Base Year: -Download:
| Year | Qtr1 | Qtr2 | Qtr3 | Qtr4 | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2001 | -1.3 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| 2002 | 8.8 | 0.5 | 3.8 | -0.2 | 4.6 |
| 2003 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 9.5 | 1.5 | 3.7 |
| 2004 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 2.6 |
| 2005 | 4.2 | -0.8 | 3.1 | -0.2 | 1.6 |
| 2006 | 2.5 | 0.4 | -2.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | -2.4 | 2.2 | -0.7 | -3.4 | 0.6 |
| 2009 | 1.3 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 |
| 2010 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 2011 | -0.6 | -0.1 | 1.9(R) | 0.7 | 0.7 |
| R : revised | |||||
[SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics]
Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index
January 2012 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
PMI at 54.1%
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of January 2012.
This report reflects the U.S. Department of Commerce’s recently completed annual adjustment to the seasonal factors used to calculate the indexes.
New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slower
Inventories Contracting
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in January for the 30th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 32nd consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The PMI registered 54.1 percent, an increase of 1 percentage point from December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 53.1 percent, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector for the 30th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 2.8 percentage points from December’s seasonally adjusted reading to 57.6 percent, reflecting the 33rd consecutive month of growth in new orders. Prices of raw materials increased for the first time in the last four months. Manufacturing is starting out the year on a positive note, with new orders, production and employment all growing in January.”
PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
Of the 18 manufacturing industries, nine are reporting growth in January, in the following order: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Fabricated Metal Products; Paper Products; and Primary Metals. The seven industries reporting contraction in January — listed in order — are: Plastics & Rubber Products; Furniture & Related Products; Wood Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Textile Mills.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “Still seeing raw materials pricing moving down in general, but expect inflation later in the quarter.” (Chemical Products)
- “Year starting a little slow, but customers are positive about increased business in 2012.” (Machinery)
- “Once again, business continues to be strong.” (Paper Products)
- “Pricing remains in check with the demand we are seeing. Supplier deliveries are on time or early.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “The economy seems to be slowly improving.” (Fabricated Metal Products)
- “Business lost to offshore is coming back.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Business remains strong. Order intake is great — more than 20 percent above budget.” (Primary Metals)
- “Indications are that 2012 business environment will improve over 2011.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “Market conditions appear to be improving, with the outlook for 2012 better yet.” (Wood Products)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE JANUARY 2012 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Series Index Jan |
Series Index Dec |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend* (Months) |
| PMI | 54.1 | 53.1 | +1.0 | Growing | Faster | 30 |
| New Orders | 57.6 | 54.8 | +2.8 | Growing | Faster | 33 |
| Production | 55.7 | 58.9 | -3.2 | Growing | Slower | 32 |
| Employment | 54.3 | 54.8 | -0.5 | Growing | Slower | 28 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 53.6 | 51.5 | +2.1 | Slowing | Faster | 31 |
| Inventories | 49.5 | 45.5 | +4.0 | Contracting | Slower | 4 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 47.5 | 42.5 | +5.0 | Too Low | Slower | 2 |
| Prices | 55.5 | 47.5 | +8.0 | Increasing | From Decreasing | 1 |
| Backlog of Orders | 52.5 | 48.0 | +4.5 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 |
| Exports | 55.0 | 53.0 | +2.0 | Growing | Faster | 3 |
| Imports | 52.5 | 54.0 | -1.5 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Faster | 32 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Faster | 30 | |||
*Number of months moving in current direction.
Indexes reflect newly released seasonal adjustment factors.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP/DOWN IN PRICE and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Caustic Soda; Gasoline; High Density Polyethylene; Oil; Stainless Steel; Steel (2); Steel — Cold Rolled; and Titanium Dioxide.
Commodities Down in Price
Aluminum (5); Aluminum Products (2); Natural Gas (6); Plastic Products (4); Plastic Resins (6); Polyethylene; Polypropylene (3); Polypropylene Resin; and Steel Products.
Commodities in Short Supply
Hard Drives (2); and Integrated Circuit Boards.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
Institute for Supply Management Services Index
December 2011 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
NMI at 52.6%
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of December 2011.
Business Activity Index at 56.2%
New Orders Index at 53.2%
Employment Index at 49.4%
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in December for the 25th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The NMI registered 52.6 percent in December, 0.6 percentage point higher than the 52 percent registered in November, and indicating continued growth at a slightly faster rate in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index registered 56.2 percent, which is the same reading as reported in November, reflecting growth for the 29th consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased by 0.2 percentage point to 53.2 percent. The Employment Index increased 0.5 percentage point to 49.4 percent, indicating contraction in employment for the third time in the last four months. The Prices Index decreased 1.3 percentage points to 61.2 percent, indicating prices increased at a slower rate in December when compared to November. According to the NMI, 11 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in December. Respondents’ comments are mixed and vary by industry and company. Economic growth continues to be slowed by the lag in employment.”
INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)
The 11 non-manufacturing industries reporting growth in December based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Retail Trade; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Information; Construction; Other Services; Wholesale Trade; Public Administration; Educational Services; Mining; and Transportation & Warehousing. The seven industries reporting contraction in December — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Management of Companies & Support Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Accommodation & Food Services; Utilities; and Arts, Entertainment & Recreation.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “Year-end uptick in activity.” (Finance & Insurance)
- “Business is stabilizing — some good signs in the private sector for commercial construction.” (Construction)
- “Some additional proposal requests, but clients continue to delay decisions on capital spending. Expect first quarter 2012 activity to be sluggish.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- “Automotive industry growth seems to be outpacing the rest of the economy.” (Information)
- “Demand increasing gradually.” (Wholesale Trade)
- “Business is holding steady. Outlook for December and first quarter 2012 is good.” (Retail Trade)
| ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* DECEMBER 2011 |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||
| Index | Series Index Dec |
Series Index Nov |
Percent Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend** (Months) |
Series Index Dec |
Series Index Nov |
Percent Point Change |
| NMI/PMI | 52.6 | 52.0 | +0.6 | Growing | Faster | 25 | 53.9 | 52.7 | +1.2 |
| Business Activity/Production | 56.2 | 56.2 | 0.0 | Growing | Same | 29 | 59.9 | 56.6 | +3.3 |
| New Orders | 53.2 | 53.0 | +0.2 | Growing | Faster | 29 | 57.6 | 56.7 | +0.9 |
| Employment | 49.4 | 48.9 | +0.5 | Contracting | Slower | 2 | 55.1 | 51.8 | +3.3 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 51.5 | 50.0 | +1.5 | Slower | From Unchanged | 1 | 49.9 | 49.9 | 0.0 |
| Inventories | 48.5 | 52.5 | -4.0 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | 47.1 | 48.3 | -1.2 |
| Prices | 61.2 | 62.5 | -1.3 | Increasing | Slower | 29 | 47.5 | 45.0 | +2.5 |
| Backlog of Orders | 45.5 | 48.0 | -2.5 | Contracting | Faster | 3 | 48.0 | 45.0 | +3.0 |
| New Export Orders | 51.0 | 55.5 | -4.5 | Growing | Slower | 5 | 53.0 | 52.0 | +1.0 |
| Imports | 54.0 | 48.5 | +5.5 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 54.0 | 49.0 | +5.0 |
| Inventory Sentiment | 59.5 | 63.0 | -3.5 | Too High | Slower | 175 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Customers’ Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 42.5 | 50.0 | -7.5 |
* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
** Number of months moving in current direction.
COMMODITIES REPORTED UP / DOWN IN PRICE, and IN SHORT SUPPLY
Commodities Up in Price
Coffee; #1 Diesel Fuel; #2 Diesel Fuel (2); Food Products (2); Gloves (2); Medical Supplies; Professional Labor; Protein; and Steel.
Commodities Down in Price
Fuel (2); and Gasoline.
Commodities in Short Supply
#2 Diesel Fuel is the only commodity reported in short supply.
Note: The number of consecutive months the commodity is listed is indicated after each item.
Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income and Outlays – December 2011
Personal Income and Outlays – November 2011
Gregg D. Killoren
victoria1014
