Economic Growth Statistics
ECONOMIC GROWTH INDICATORS
Gross Domestic Product
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: THIRD QUARTER 2009 (ADVANCE ESTIMATE) Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter of 2009, (that is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 0.7 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 5). The "second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 24, 2009. The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, private inventory investment, federal government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The upturn in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in PCE, in private inventory investment, in exports, and in residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by an upturn in imports, a downturn in state and local government spending, and a deceleration in federal government spending. Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change. Final sales of computers subtracted 0.11 percentage point from the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.04 percentage point from the second-quarter change. ______________________ FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. ______________________ The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent in the second. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the second. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.9 percent in the second. Durable goods increased 22.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 5.6 percent. The third-quarter increase largely reflected motor vehicle purchases under the Consumer Assistance to Recycle and Save Act of 2009 (popularly called, “Cash for Clunkers” Program). Nondurable goods increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.9 percent in the second. Services increased 1.2 percent, compared with an increase of 0.2 percent. Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 2.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with a decrease of 9.6 percent in the second. Nonresidential structures decreased 9.0 percent, compared with a decrease of 17.3 percent. Equipment and software increased 1.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.9 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 23.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 23.3 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 14.7 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 4.1 percent in the second. Real imports of goods and services increased 16.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 14.7 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 7.9 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the second. National defense increased 8.4 percent, compared with an increase of 14.0 percent. Nondefense increased 6.8 percent, compared with an increase of 6.1 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 1.1 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.9 percent. The change in real private inventories added 0.94 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 1.42 percentage points from the second-quarter change. Private businesses decreased inventories $130.8 billion in the third quarter, following decreases of $160.2 billion in the second quarter and $113.9 billion in the first. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the second. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 4.0 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 2.3 percent in the second. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income decreased $15.5 billion (0.5 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $19.1 billion (0.6 percent) in the second. Personal current taxes increased $4.8 billion in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of $119.1 billion in the second. The quarterly pattern of taxes reflected a much smaller decrease in federal withheld income taxes in the third quarter, based on the quarterly pattern of wages and salaries and a leveling off of the effects on withholding rates from the Making Work Pay Credit provision of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. (For more information, see the Technical Note.) Disposable personal income decreased $20.4 billion (0.7 percent) in the third quarter, in contrast to an increase of $138.2 billion (5.2 percent) in the second. Real disposable personal income decreased 3.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 3.8 percent. Personal outlays increased $148.2 billion (5.8 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an increase of $8.2 billion (0.3 percent) in the second. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $364.6 billion in the third quarter, compared with $533.1 billion in the second. The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.3 percent in the third quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the second. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to http://www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa- Frb.asp. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 4.3 percent, or $150.3 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $14,301.5 billion. In the second quarter, current-dollar GDP decreased 0.8 percent, or $26.8 billion. ______________________ BOX. Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." ______________________ * * * BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release – November 24, 2009, at 8:30 A.M. EST for: Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2009 (Second Estimate) Corporate Profits: Third Quarter (Preliminary Estimate)
Retail Sales (Consumer Spending)
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES
SEPTEMBER 2009
| Special Notice - Beginning with the December 11, 2009 release for November 2009, estimates in this release will be based on a new sample. A new sample for the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey is selected about once every two and a half years. For further information on the sample revision, see our website at http://www.census.gov/retail. |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.7 billion, a decrease of 1.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 5.7 percent (±0.7%) below September 2008. Total sales for the July through September 2009 period were down 6.6 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2009 percent change was revised from +2.7 percent (±0.5%) to +2.2 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were down 1.7 percent (±0.7%) from August 2009 and 6.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 25.3 percent (±1.3%) from September 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 13.0 percent (±2.0%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for October is scheduled to be released November 16, 2009 at 8:30 a.m. EST.
For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Sep(3) Aug Jul Sep Aug Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 344,688 349,885 342,489 365,399 371,311 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 288,452 287,120 284,270 303,389 306,500 Retail ....................................... 306,336 311,611 304,450 327,273 333,356 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 93,458 92,532 95,095 97,192 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 56,236 62,765 58,219 62,010 64,811 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 49,696 56,320 51,784 55,465 58,268 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,830 7,721 7,783 8,371 8,724 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,283 8,283 8,240 9,176 9,323 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,516 6,460 7,320 7,421 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,767 1,780 1,856 1,902 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 23,342 23,399 23,679 26,845 27,113 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 19,514 19,687 22,565 22,827 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 49,662 49,324 48,949 49,441 49,749 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 44,322 43,934 43,683 44,245 44,549 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,504 3,447 3,484 3,500 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 21,293 21,115 21,012 20,565 20,556 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 17,569 17,509 17,115 16,979 447 Gasoline stations................................ 31,433 31,077 29,668 42,070 42,477 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,477 17,392 17,208 17,713 18,443 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,889 2,868 3,105 3,180 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,218 2,146 2,162 2,314 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,298 7,291 7,163 7,154 7,370 452 General merchandise stores....................... 50,013 49,573 48,966 49,453 50,076 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 15,656 15,592 15,419 16,262 16,571 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 33,981 33,547 33,191 33,505 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 30,054 29,686 29,432 29,741 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 3,927 3,861 3,759 3,764 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 9,317 9,498 9,413 9,752 9,779 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 24,152 24,173 24,150 24,723 24,935 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 17,518 17,336 16,905 16,930 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 38,352 38,274 38,039 38,126 37,955 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2009
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 9 month total % Chg. 2009 2009 2009 2008 2008 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2009 from Sep(2) Aug Jul Sep Aug Code 2008 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 3,041,924 -8.8 333,360 360,209 354,316 352,554 384,798 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,510,162 -7.0 277,506 291,655 289,465 291,226 314,306 Retail ....................................... 2,697,517 -9.9 295,813 320,519 314,603 315,534 344,528 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 95,211 89,222 86,587 99,918 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 531,762 -16.2 55,854 68,554 64,851 61,328 70,492 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 472,895 -17.8 49,249 61,896 57,998 54,744 63,687 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 50,099 45,640 44,022 50,978 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,658 6,853 6,584 6,805 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 68,818 -12.7 7,830 8,014 8,016 8,338 9,143 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,394 4,250 4,459 5,007 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,620 3,766 3,879 4,136 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 71,048 -9.9 7,413 8,128 7,740 8,226 9,199 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,425 6,079 6,522 7,354 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,703 1,661 1,704 1,845 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 219,849 -12.2 23,281 23,407 26,261 26,895 27,185 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 20,256 21,990 23,445 23,786 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 436,913 0.0 48,213 49,884 50,823 47,664 50,775 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 391,385 -0.4 43,081 44,505 45,299 42,741 45,440 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,525 3,692 3,303 3,647 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 187,432 3.0 20,569 20,672 20,823 19,907 20,165 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 17,112 17,386 16,567 16,588 447 Gasoline stations................................ 265,172 -31.7 31,905 34,123 33,466 42,785 46,640 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 144,310 -5.9 15,868 17,937 16,324 15,929 19,049 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 663 695 729 749 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,771 2,627 2,984 3,069 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 7,262 6,625 6,102 7,562 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,755 2,084 1,948 2,878 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 60,960 -1.9 6,904 8,275 6,755 6,710 8,498 452 General merchandise stores....................... 420,608 -0.8 45,303 49,437 47,336 44,179 50,374 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 127,871 -7.0 13,691 15,442 14,177 13,958 16,507 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 15,840 14,546 14,407 17,009 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 33,995 33,159 30,221 33,867 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 30,355 29,449 26,842 30,276 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 3,640 3,710 3,379 3,591 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 83,248 -4.9 9,275 9,434 9,485 9,686 9,899 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 207,397 -4.3 23,398 22,654 22,723 23,887 23,109 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 16,800 16,660 16,618 16,185 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 344,407 1.1 37,547 39,690 39,713 37,020 40,270 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2009
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Sep Aug 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Aug Sep Jul Aug Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -1.5 -5.7 +2.2 -5.8 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.5 -4.9 +1.0 -6.3 Retail .................................. -1.7 -6.4 +2.4 -6.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -10.4 -9.3 +7.8 -3.2 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... -11.8 -10.4 +8.8 -3.3 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +1.4 -6.5 -0.8 -11.5 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... 0.0 -9.7 +0.5 -11.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.2 -13.0 -1.2 -13.7 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +0.7 +0.4 +0.8 -0.9 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +0.9 +0.2 +0.6 -1.4 446 Health & personal care stores.................... +0.8 +3.5 +0.5 +2.7 447 Gasoline stations................................ +1.1 -25.3 +4.7 -26.8 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +0.5 -1.3 +1.1 -5.7 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ +0.1 +2.0 +1.8 -1.1 452 General merchandise stores....................... +0.9 +1.1 +1.2 -1.0 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... +0.4 -3.7 +1.1 -5.9 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.9 -4.5 +0.9 -2.9 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -0.1 -2.3 +0.1 -3.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.2 +0.6 +0.6 +0.8 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--September 2009
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Sep Aug 2009 2009 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Aug Sep Jul Aug Code 2009 2008 2009 2008 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... -7.5 -5.4 +1.7 -6.4 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... -4.9 -4.7 +0.8 -7.2 Retail .................................. -7.7 -6.3 +1.9 -7.0 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... -18.5 -8.9 +5.7 -2.7 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ -20.4 -10.0 +6.7 -2.8 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -2.3 -6.1 0.0 -12.3 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -8.8 -9.9 +5.0 -11.6 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.5 -13.4 -10.9 -13.9 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -3.3 +1.2 -1.8 -1.8 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -3.2 +0.8 -1.8 -2.1 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -0.5 +3.3 -0.7 +2.5 447 Gasoline stations................................ -6.5 -25.4 +2.0 -26.8 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -11.5 -0.4 +9.9 -5.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -16.6 +2.9 +22.5 -2.6 452 General merchandise stores....................... -8.4 +2.5 +4.4 -1.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -11.3 -1.9 +8.9 -6.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -1.7 -4.2 -0.5 -4.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +3.3 -2.0 -0.3 -2.0 722 Food services & drinking places.................. -5.4 +1.4 -0.1 -1.4 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services–SEPTEMBER 2009 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/retail.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. (2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail
Current Quarter Retail E-Commerce Sales
Source: Retail Indicators Branch, U.S. Census Bureau | Last Revised: October 14, 2009
Productivity
Major Sector Productivity and Costs Index
| Year | Qtr1 | Qtr2 | Qtr3 | Qtr4 | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 |
| 2000 | -1.5 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| 2001 | -1.3 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| 2002 | 8.8 | 0.5 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 4.6 |
| 2003 | 3.7 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 3.7 |
| 2004 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| 2005 | 3.9 | -0.6 | 2.9 | -0.4 | 1.7 |
| 2006 | 2.8 | 0.6 | -1.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | 1.2 | 2.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 2008 | -0.1 | 3.1 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 2009 | 0.3 | 6.9 | 9.5 |
[SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics]
Institute for Supply Management Index (Manufacturing)
A summary of the October 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report on Business® is provided below. Please click on the title heading to go to the ISM website to view the full report.
October 2009 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
PMI at 55.7%
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of October 2009.
New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Inventories Contracting
Supplier Deliveries Slower
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in October for the third consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the sixth consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “The manufacturing sector grew for the third consecutive month in October, and the rate of growth is the highest since April 2006 when the PMI registered 56 percent. The jump in the index was driven by production and employment, with both registering significant gains. Production appears to be benefiting from the continuing strength in new orders, while the improvement in employment is due to some callbacks and opportunities for temporary workers. Overall, it appears that inventories are balanced and that manufacturing is in a sustainable recovery mode.”
PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
In October, 13 of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth. The industries — listed in order — are: Petroleum & Coal Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Furniture & Related Products; Chemical Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment; Plastics & Rubber Products; Machinery; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Printing & Related Support Activities; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Paper Products. The three industries reporting contraction in October are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; and Wood Products.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “We are beginning to be affected greatly by lead-time increases on semiconductor components.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
- “Still a very difficult environment — commodity increases threaten recovery and don’t seem to correlate with any supply/demand fundamentals.” (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- “Automotive demand still remains strong even after ‘cash for clunkers.’” (Fabricated Metal Products) [indicated for the second month]
- “After several rather busy months, we are seeing the order intake for early next year soften.” (Transportation Equipment)
- “The improvement seen earlier is not holding.” (Primary Metals)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE OCTOBER 2009 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Series Index October |
Series Index September |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend* (Months) |
| PMI | 55.7 | 52.6 | +3.1 | Growing | Faster | 3 |
| New Orders | 58.5 | 60.8 | -2.3 | Growing | Slower | 4 |
| Production | 63.3 | 55.7 | +7.6 | Growing | Faster | 5 |
| Employment | 53.1 | 46.2 | +6.9 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 56.9 | 58.0 | -1.1 | Slowing | Slower | 5 |
| Inventories | 46.9 | 42.5 | +4.4 | Contracting | Slower | 42 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 38.5 | 39.0 | -0.5 | Too Low | Faster | 7 |
| Prices | 65.0 | 63.5 | +1.5 | Increasing | Faster | 4 |
| Backlog of Orders | 53.5 | 53.5 | 0.0 | Growing | Same | 3 |
| Exports | 55.5 | 55.0 | +0.5 | Growing | Faster | 4 |
| Imports | 51.0 | 52.0 | -1.0 | Growing | Slower | 2 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Faster | 6 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Faster | 3 | |||
*Number of months moving in current direction.
