Economic Growth Statistics
ECONOMIC GROWTH INDICATORS
Gross Domestic Product
National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2010 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2010 (preliminary estimate)Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent. The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.4 percent (see "Revisions" on page 3). The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from nonresidential fixed investment, personal consumption expenditures, exports, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The deceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a sharp acceleration in imports and a sharp deceleration in private inventory investment that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in federal government spending. __________________________ FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release. __________________________ Final sales of computers added 0.03 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.10 percentage point to the first-quarter change. Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.08 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.74 percentage point to the first-quarter change. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 0.1 percent in the second quarter, the same increase as in the advance estimate; this index increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the first. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the first. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 17.6 percent, compared with an increase of 7.8 percent. Nonresidential structures increased 0.4 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 17.8 percent. Equipment and software increased 24.9 percent, compared with an increase of 20.4 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 27.2 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 12.3 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 9.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 11.4 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 32.4 percent, compared with an increase of 11.2 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in the first. National defense increased 7.3 percent, compared with an increase of 0.4 percent. Nondefense increased 12.9 percent, compared with an increase of 5.0 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 1.2 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 3.8 percent. The change in real private inventories added 0.63 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP, after adding 2.64 percentage points to the first-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $63.2 billion in the second quarter, following an increase of $44.1 billion in the first quarter and a decrease of $36.7 billion in the fourth. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the first. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 4.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.9 percent in the first. Gross national product Real gross national product -- the goods and services produced by the labor and property supplied by U.S. residents -- increased 1.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 4.4 percent in the first. GNP includes, and GDP excludes, net receipts of income from the rest of the world, which increased $2.1 billion in the second quarter after increasing $22.9 billion in the first; in the second quarter, receipts increased $13.7 billion, and payments increased $11.6 billion. Current-dollar GDP Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased 3.6 percent, or $128.6 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $14,575.0 billion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 4.8 percent, or $169.1 billion. Revisions The “second” estimate of the second-quarter increase in real GDP is 0.8 percentage point, or $25.0 billion, lower than the advance estimate issued last month, primarily reflecting an upward revision to imports and downward revisions to private inventory investment and to exports that were partly offset by an upward revision to personal consumption expenditures. Advance Second (Percent change from preceding quarter) Real GDP..................................... 2.4 1.6 Current-dollar GDP........................... 4.3 3.6 Gross domestic purchases price index......... 0.1 0.1 Corporate Profits Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $72.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $148.4 billion in the first quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation adjustment) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $53.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $33.3 billion in the first. Taxes on corporate income increased $39.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $84.1 billion in the first. Profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments increased $33.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $64.1 billion in the first. Dividends increased $4.5 billion compared with an increase of $11.8 billion; current- production undistributed profits increased $29.2 billion, compared with an increase of $52.4 billion. Domestic profits of financial corporations decreased $0.4 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of $5.2 billion in the first. Domestic profits of nonfinancial corporations increased $67.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $117.2 billion in the first. In the second quarter, real gross value added of nonfinancial corporations increased, and profits per unit of real value added increased. The increase in unit profits reflected an increase in unit prices and decreases in both the unit labor and nonlabor costs corporations incurred. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased $5.3 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $25.9 billion in the first. This measure is calculated as (1) receipts by U.S. residents of earnings from their foreign affiliates plus dividends received by U.S. residents from unaffiliated foreign corporations minus (2) payments by U.S. affiliates of earnings to their foreign parents plus dividends paid by U.S. corporations to unaffiliated foreign residents. The second-quarter increase was accounted for by a larger increase in receipts than in payments. Profits before tax increased $41.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $224.5 billion in the first. The before-tax measure of profits does not reflect, as does profits from current production, the capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. These adjustments convert depreciation of fixed assets and inventory withdrawals reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost measures used in the national income and product accounts. The capital consumption adjustment decreased $1.2 billion in the second quarter (from -$169.9 billion to -$171.1 billion), compared with a decrease of $106.9 billion in the first. The inventory valuation adjustment increased $32.9 billion (from -$36.4 billion to -$3.5 billion), compared with an increase of $30.8 billion. * * * BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business; and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements. * * * Next release -- September 30, 2010, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for: Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2010 (Third Estimate) Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2010 (Revised Estimate)
Retail Sales (Consumer Spending)
ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES
JULY 2010
| Special Notice: The HTML version of the Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services (MARTS) release will not be available beginning with the September 2010 MARTS release on October 15, 2010. However, the release will continue to be available in PDF, Excel, and Text formats at http://www.census.gov/retail . |
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $362.7 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month, and 5.5 percent (±0.5%) above July 2009. Total sales for the May through July 2010 period were up 5.9 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The May to June 2010 percent change was revised from -0.5 percent (±0.5%)* to -0.3 percent (±0.2%).
Retail trade sales were up 0.4 percent (±0.5%)* from June 2010, and 5.9 percent (±0.7%) above last year. Nonstore retailers sales were up 12.6 percent (±2.5%) from July 2009 and gasoline stations sales were up 12.2 percent (±1.8%) from last year.
The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Census Bureau’s full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section on the last page of this publication.
Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Estimates adjusted for seasonal variation, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)
The Advance Monthly Retail Sales for Retail and Food Services for August is scheduled to be released September 14, 2010 at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
For information, visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at <http://www.census.gov/retail>. This report is also available the day of issue through the Department of Commerce’s STAT-USA (202-482-1986).
* The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.
TABLE 1A. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2010
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes. (Total sales estimates are shown in millions of dollars and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(2) (In Millions of dollars) 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 NAICS(1) Kind of Business Jul(3) Jun May Jul Jun Code (a) (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 362,688 361,204 362,219 343,705 343,411 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 299,701 299,210 299,400 285,671 286,150 Retail ....................................... 323,328 321,908 322,912 305,441 305,079 GAFO(4).......................................... (*) 95,106 95,002 91,978 92,082 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 62,987 61,994 62,819 58,034 57,261 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 56,455 55,536 56,396 51,835 50,982 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 7,460 7,485 7,606 7,421 7,428 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 8,711 8,716 8,610 8,065 8,140 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) 6,829 6,742 6,469 6,490 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) 1,887 1,868 1,596 1,650 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 23,286 23,356 23,547 22,402 22,658 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) 19,311 19,562 19,156 19,298 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 48,425 48,590 48,769 47,945 48,029 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 43,227 43,316 43,515 42,815 42,897 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) 3,436 3,421 3,329 3,321 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 21,841 21,840 21,627 21,121 21,195 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) 18,660 18,463 18,158 18,191 447 Gasoline stations................................ 35,348 34,563 35,277 31,502 31,755 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 17,988 18,108 18,133 17,333 17,246 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (S) (S) (S) (S) 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) 2,993 3,002 2,937 2,967 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) 2,286 2,271 2,166 2,155 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 7,244 7,249 7,221 6,885 6,922 452 General merchandise stores....................... 50,256 50,380 50,254 49,064 49,108 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 15,405 15,559 15,396 15,529 15,600 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(5)............... (*) (NA) (NA) (NA) (NA) 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) 34,821 34,858 33,535 33,508 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) 30,460 30,555 29,609 29,586 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) 4,361 4,303 3,926 3,922 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 10,032 9,949 9,860 9,248 9,213 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 29,750 29,678 29,189 26,421 26,124 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) 22,347 21,973 19,493 19,170 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 39,360 39,296 39,307 38,264 38,332 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (S) Suppressed (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Estimates are concurrently adjusted for seasonal variation and for holiday and trading day differences, but not for price changes. Concurrent seasonal adjustment uses all available unadjusted estimates as input to the X-12 ARIMA program. The factors derived from the program are used in calculating all seasonally adjusted estimates shown in this table. Year-to-date seasonally adjusted sales estimates are not tabulated. Adjustment factors and explanatory material can be found on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/retail (3) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (4) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (5) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 1B. ESTIMATED MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2010
Estimates not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (In Millions of dollars and Annual Percent Change) 7 month total % Chg. 2010 2010 2010 2009 2009 NAICS(1) Kind of Business 2010 from Jul(2) Jun May Jul Jun Code 2009 (a) (p) (r) Retail & food services, total.................... 2,491,956 6.4 372,768 368,637 375,699 353,617 349,960 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts)............ 2,049,027 5.7 303,340 302,016 308,523 289,398 288,493 Retail ....................................... 2,216,717 6.9 331,046 328,712 334,269 313,669 310,938 GAFO(3).......................................... (*) (*) (*) 90,726 94,083 88,559 87,636 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... 442,929 9.8 69,428 66,621 67,176 64,219 61,467 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................. 398,100 10.9 62,439 59,646 60,682 57,537 54,704 44111 New car dealers................................ (*) (*) (*) 47,026 48,580 46,176 43,031 4413 Auto parts, acc. & tire stores.................. (*) (*) (*) 6,975 6,494 6,682 6,763 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. 51,254 1.7 7,647 7,388 7,469 7,614 7,317 4421 Furniture stores................................ (*) (*) (*) 4,002 4,230 4,019 3,907 4422 Home furnishings stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 3,386 3,239 3,595 3,410 443 Electronics & appliance stores.................... 55,796 2.6 8,196 8,182 7,876 7,583 7,631 44311,13 Appl., T.V. & camera........................... (*) (*) (*) 6,406 6,223 6,081 6,088 44312 Computer & software stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 1,776 1,653 1,502 1,543 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers 169,607 3.8 25,588 28,400 29,376 24,867 27,271 4441 Building mat. & supplies dealers................ (*) (*) (*) 22,478 22,614 21,378 22,386 445 Food & beverage stores........................... 338,015 2.2 50,323 48,434 50,282 49,570 47,621 4451 Grocery stores.................................. 302,930 2.1 44,870 43,186 44,907 44,185 42,511 4453 Beer, wine & liquor stores...................... (*) (*) (*) 3,436 3,459 3,575 3,328 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 150,733 2.7 21,535 21,753 21,605 20,973 21,131 44611 Pharmacies & drug stores........................ (*) (*) (*) 18,455 18,426 18,031 18,009 447 Gasoline stations................................ 249,126 21.1 38,459 37,051 37,817 34,558 34,232 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... 115,739 4.7 17,097 16,506 18,178 16,334 15,746 44811 Men's clothing stores........................... (*) (*) (*) 674 702 633 665 44812 Women's clothing stores......................... (*) (*) (*) 2,915 3,233 2,670 2,887 44814 Family clothing stores.......................... (*) (*) (*) 6,356 6,904 6,546 5,946 4482 Shoe stores..................................... (*) (*) (*) 2,080 2,266 2,095 1,959 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores....... 46,055 4.7 6,904 6,923 6,557 6,506 6,548 452 General merchandise stores....................... 335,187 2.9 48,602 48,790 50,998 47,434 47,400 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... 98,179 -0.5 14,134 14,396 15,006 14,302 14,322 4521 Department stores (incl. L.D.)(4)............... (*) (*) (*) 14,696 15,335 14,641 14,658 4529 Other general merchandise stores................ (*) (*) (*) 34,394 35,992 33,132 33,078 45291 Warehouse clubs & supercenters................. (*) (*) (*) 30,094 31,594 29,343 29,231 45299 All other gen. merchandise stores.............. (*) (*) (*) 4,300 4,398 3,789 3,847 453 Miscellaneous store retailers.................... 66,606 4.9 10,249 10,608 10,292 9,376 9,761 454 Nonstore retailers............................... 195,670 12.4 27,018 28,056 26,643 24,635 24,813 4541 Electronic shopping & mail-order houses......... (*) (*) (*) 21,498 20,435 18,460 18,537 722 Food services & drinking places.................. 275,239 2.2 41,722 39,925 41,430 39,948 39,022 (*) Advance estimates are not available for this kind of business. (NA) Not available (a) Advance estimate (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (1) For a full description of the NAICS codes used in this table, see http://www.census.gov/eos/www/naics (2) Advance estimates are based on early reports obtained from a small sample of firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) sample. All other estimates are from the MRTS sample. (3) GAFO represents firms which specialize in department store types of merchandise and is comprised of furniture & home furnishings (442), electronics & appliances (443), clothing & clothing accessories (448), sporting goods, hobby, book, and music (451), general merchandise (452), office supply, stationery, and gift stores (4532). (4) Estimates include data for leased departments operated within department stores. Data for this line are not included in broader kind-of-business totals.TABLE 2A. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2010
Estimates adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Jul Jun 2010 2010 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jun Jul May Jun Code 2010 2009 2010 2009 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +0.4 +5.5 -0.3 +5.2 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.2 +4.9 -0.1 +4.6 Retail .................................. +0.4 +5.9 -0.3 +5.5 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +1.6 +8.5 -1.3 +8.3 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers............... +1.7 +8.9 -1.5 +8.9 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. -0.3 +0.5 -1.6 +0.8 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... -0.1 +8.0 +1.2 +7.1 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -0.3 +3.9 -0.8 +3.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... -0.3 +1.0 -0.4 +1.2 4451 Grocery stores.................................. -0.2 +1.0 -0.5 +1.0 446 Health & personal care stores.................... 0.0 +3.4 +1.0 +3.0 447 Gasoline stations................................ +2.3 +12.2 -2.0 +8.8 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... -0.7 +3.8 -0.1 +5.0 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.1 +5.2 +0.4 +4.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.2 +2.4 +0.3 +2.6 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.0 -0.8 +1.1 -0.3 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... +0.8 +8.5 +0.9 +8.0 454 Nonstore retailers............................... +0.2 +12.6 +1.7 +13.6 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +0.2 +2.9 0.0 +2.5 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from adjusted estimates provided in Table 1A of this report.TABLE 2B. ESTIMATED CHANGE IN SALES FOR RETAIL AND FOOD SERVICES, BY KIND OF BUSINESS--July 2010
Data not adjusted for seasonal variations and holiday and trading-day differences and price changes. (Estimates are shown as percents and are based on data from the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey, Monthly Retail Trade Survey, and administrative records.)(*) Jul Jun 2010 2010 adv. prel. from-- from-- NAICS Kind of Business Jun Jul May Jun Code 2010 2009 2010 2009 (p) (r) (r) (r) Retail & food Services, total.................... +1.1 +5.4 -1.9 +5.3 Total (excl. motor vehicle & parts ).......... +0.4 +4.8 -2.1 +4.7 Retail .................................. +0.7 +5.5 -1.7 +5.7 441 Motor vehicle & parts dealers.................... +4.2 +8.1 -0.8 +8.4 4411,4412 Auto & other motor veh. dealers................ +4.7 +8.5 -1.7 +9.0 442 Furniture & home furnishings stores.............. +3.5 +0.4 -1.1 +1.0 443 Electronics & appliance stores................... +0.2 +8.1 +3.9 +7.2 444 Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers -9.9 +2.9 -3.3 +4.1 445 Food & beverage stores........................... +3.9 +1.5 -3.7 +1.7 4451 Grocery stores.................................. +3.9 +1.6 -3.8 +1.6 446 Health & personal care stores.................... -1.0 +2.7 +0.7 +2.9 447 Gasoline stations................................ +3.8 +11.3 -2.0 +8.2 448 Clothing & clothing accessories stores........... +3.6 +4.7 -9.2 +4.8 451 Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores........ -0.3 +6.1 +5.6 +5.7 452 General merchandise stores....................... -0.4 +2.5 -4.3 +2.9 4521 Department stores (ex. L.D.).................... -1.8 -1.2 -4.1 +0.5 453 Miscellaneous stores retailers................... -3.4 +9.3 +3.1 +8.7 454 Nonstore retailers............................... -3.7 +9.7 +5.3 +13.1 722 Food services & drinking places.................. +4.5 +4.4 -3.6 +2.3 (p) Preliminary estimate (r) Revised estimate (*) Estimates shown in this table are derived from not adjusted estimates provided in Table 1B of this report.
SOURCE: Advance Monthly Sales for Retail Trade and Food Services–JULY 2010 (Press Release available without charge from Public Information Office, Bureau of the Census Washington, D.C. 20233). Survey methodology and measures of sampling variability are documented in the Advance Press Release. Questions concerning this report should be directed to Mr. Timothy Winters (301) 763-2713.
Survey Description
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States. Each month, questionnaires are mailed to a probability sample of approximately 5,000 employer firms selected from the larger Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS). Firms responding to MARTS account for approximately 65% of the total national sales estimate. Advance sales estimates are computed using a link relative estimator. The change in sales from the previous month is estimated using only units that have reported data for both the current and previous month. There is no imputation or adjustment for nonrespondents in MARTS. The total sales estimate is derived by multiplying this ratio by the preliminary sales estimate for the previous month (derived from the larger MRTS sample). Detailed industry estimates are summed to derive total estimates at broad industry levels. The monthly estimates are adjusted using annual survey estimates and for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences. Additional information on MARTS and MRTS can be found on the Census Bureau website at: http://www.census.gov/retail.
Reliability of Estimates
Because the estimates presented in this report are based on a sample survey, they contain sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is the difference between the estimate and the result that would be obtained from a complete enumeration of the sampling frame conducted under the same survey conditions. This error occurs because only a subset of the entire sampling frame is measured in a sample survey. Standard errors and coefficients of variation (CV), as given in Table 3 of this report, are estimated measures of sampling variation. The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is 90-percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is -0.3 percent to +2.7 percent. If the interval contains 0, then one does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude at the 90 percent confidence level that the change is different from zero and therefore the change is not statistically significant. Estimated changes shown in the text are statistically significant unless otherwise noted. For a monthly total, the median estimated coefficient of variation is given. The resulting confidence interval is the estimated value ±1.65 x CV x (the estimated monthly total). The Census Bureau recommends that individuals using estimates in this report incorporate this information into their analyses, as sampling error could affect the conclusions drawn from the estimates. Nonsampling error encompasses all other factors that contribute to the total error of a sample survey estimate. This type of error can occur because of nonresponse, insufficient coverage of the universe of retail businesses, mistakes in the recording and coding of data, and other errors of collection, response, coverage, or processing. Although nonsampling error is not measured directly, the Census Bureau employs quality control procedures throughout the process to minimize this type of error.
(1) Estimated measures of sampling variability are based on estimates not adjusted for seasonal variation, or holiday, or trading-day differences. Medians are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. (2) These columns provide measures of the difference between the advance-to-preliminary and preliminary-to-final estimates of month-to-month change for the same pair of months as measured by the Advance sample and MRTS sample. The average and median differences are based on estimates for the most recent 12 months. Note: Additional information on confidentiality protection, sampling error, nonsampling error, sample design, and definitions may be found at http://www.census.gov/retail
Productivity
Major Sector Productivity and Costs Index
| Year | Qtr1 | Qtr2 | Qtr3 | Qtr4 | Annual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | -1.5 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 3.4 |
| 2001 | -1.3 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 5.8 | 2.9 |
| 2002 | 8.8 | 0.5 | 3.8 | -0.3 | 4.6 |
| 2003 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 9.7 | 1.5 | 3.6 |
| 2004 | 0.8 | 3.7 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| 2005 | 4.0 | -0.9 | 2.9 | -0.1 | 1.6 |
| 2006 | 2.6 | 0.3 | -1.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| 2007 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 |
| 2008 | -1.4 | 1.2 | -1.3 | -0.1 | 1.0 |
| 2009 | 3.4 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.5 |
| 2010 | 3.9 | -1.8 |
[SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics]
Institute for Supply Management Index (Manufacturing)
August 2010 Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
PMI at 56.3%
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2010.
New Orders, Production and Employment Growing
Supplier Deliveries Slower
Inventories Growing
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in August for the 13th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 16th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Norbert J. Ore, CPSM, C.P.M., chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. “Manufacturing activity continued at a very positive rate in August as the PMI rose slightly when compared to July. In terms of month-over-month improvement, the Production and Employment Indexes experienced the greatest gains, while new orders continued to grow but at a slightly slower rate. August represents the 13th consecutive month of growth in U.S. manufacturing.”
PERFORMANCE BY INDUSTRY
Eleven of the 18 manufacturing industries are reporting growth in August, in the following order: Primary Metals; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Transportation Equipment; Fabricated Metal Products; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Computer & Electronic Products; Paper Products; Chemical Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; and Printing & Related Support Activities. The five industries reporting contraction in August are: Furniture & Related Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; and Machinery.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “Still experiencing intermittent delays in electronic components due to capacity and raw materials.” (Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components)
- “International sales are especially strong. Domestic business is solid.” (Chemical Products)
- “Orders and business still strong.” (Primary Metals)
- “Order rate has slowed some. Supplier capacity in general seems to be improved.” (Machinery)
- “Large customers reducing pull rates for production.” (Computer & Electronic Products)
| MANUFACTURING AT A GLANCE AUGUST 2010 |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | Series Index August |
Series Index July |
Percentage Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend* (Months) |
| PMI | 56.3 | 55.5 | +0.8 | Growing | Faster | 13 |
| New Orders | 53.1 | 53.5 | -0.4 | Growing | Slower | 14 |
| Production | 59.9 | 57.0 | +2.9 | Growing | Faster | 15 |
| Employment | 60.4 | 58.6 | +1.8 | Growing | Faster | 9 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 56.6 | 58.3 | -1.7 | Slowing | Slower | 15 |
| Inventories | 51.4 | 50.2 | +1.2 | Growing | Faster | 2 |
| Customers’ Inventories | 43.5 | 39.0 | +4.5 | Too Low | Slower | 17 |
| Prices | 61.5 | 57.5 | +4.0 | Increasing | Faster | 14 |
| Backlog of Orders | 51.5 | 54.5 | -3.0 | Growing | Slower | 8 |
| Exports | 55.5 | 56.5 | -1.0 | Growing | Slower | 14 |
| Imports | 56.5 | 52.5 | +4.0 | Growing | Faster | 12 |
| OVERALL ECONOMY | Growing | Faster | 16 | |||
| Manufacturing Sector | Growing | Faster | 13 | |||
*Number of months moving in current direction.
Institute for Supply Management Index (Services)
August 2010 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®
NMI at 51.5%
DO NOT CONFUSE THIS NATIONAL REPORT with the various regional purchasing reports released across the country. The national report’s information reflects the entire United States, while the regional reports contain primarily regional data from their local vicinities. Also, the information in the regional reports is not used in calculating the results of the national report. The information compiled in this report is for the month of August 2010.
Business Activity Index at 54.4%
New Orders Index at 52.4%
Employment Index at 48.2%
(Tempe, Arizona) — Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in August for the eighth consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the Institute for Supply Management™ Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee; and senior vice president — supply management for Hilton Worldwide. “The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 51.5 percent in August, 2.8 percentage points lower than the 54.3 percent registered in July, indicating continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector but at a slower rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 3 percentage points to 54.4 percent, reflecting growth for the ninth consecutive month, but at a slower rate than in July. The New Orders Index decreased 4.3 percentage points to 52.4 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 2.7 percentage points to 48.2 percent, reflecting contraction after one month of growth. The Prices Index increased 7.6 percentage points to 60.3 percent in August, indicating that prices increased significantly in July. According to the NMI, nine non-manufacturing industries reported growth in August. Respondents’ comments continue to be mixed about business conditions and the state of the overall economy.”
INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE (Based on the NMI)
The nine industries reporting growth in August based on the NMI composite index — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Construction; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Educational Services; Transportation & Warehousing; Finance & Insurance; Accommodation & Food Services; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The eight industries reporting contraction in August — listed in order — are: Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Mining; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Management of Companies & Support Services; Utilities; Retail Trade; Health Care & Social Assistance; and Public Administration.
WHAT RESPONDENTS ARE SAYING …
- “In general, sales have increased slightly compared to the same period last year. However, [sales] are still significantly less than the same period two years ago.” (Public Administration)
- “Continuing to show signs of positive growth.” (Construction)
- “Business is pretty stagnant; starting to see price erosion in our selling markets.” (Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting)
- “Due to general economic conditions, we are finding more aggressive pricing and deals to win business in the competitive marketplace.” (Health Care & Social Assistance)
- “We are anticipating a slowdown in the third and fourth quarter of this year, with no signs of recovery for the next few quarters.” (Professional, Scientific & Technical Services)
- “Purchasing has been cut back to meet expenses. As a result, some segments of company revenue have been negatively impacted.” (Retail Trade)
| ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE COMPARISON OF ISM NON-MANUFACTURING AND ISM MANUFACTURING SURVEYS* AUGUST 2010 |
|||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Non-Manufacturing | Manufacturing | ||||||||
| Index | Series Index August |
Series Index July |
Percent Point Change |
Direction | Rate of Change |
Trend** (Months) |
Series Index August |
Series Index July |
Percent Point Change |
| NMI/PMI | 51.5 | 54.3 | -2.8 | Growing | Slower | 8 | 56.3 | 55.5 | +0.8 |
| Business Activity/Production | 54.4 | 57.4 | -3.0 | Growing | Slower | 9 | 59.9 | 57.0 | +2.9 |
| New Orders | 52.4 | 56.7 | -4.3 | Growing | Slower | 12 | 53.1 | 53.5 | -0.4 |
| Employment | 48.2 | 50.9 | -2.7 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | 60.4 | 58.6 | +1.8 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 51.0 | 52.0 | -1.0 | Slowing | Slower | 5 | 56.6 | 58.3 | -1.7 |
| Inventories | 53.5 | 55.5 | -2.0 | Growing | Slower | 5 | 51.4 | 50.2 | +1.2 |
| Prices | 60.3 | 52.7 | +7.6 | Increasing | Faster | 13 | 61.5 | 57.5 | +4.0 |
| Backlog of Orders | 50.5 | 52.0 | -1.5 | Growing | Slower | 4 | 51.5 | 54.5 | -3.0 |
| New Export Orders | 46.5 | 52.0 | -5.5 | Contracting | From Growing | 1 | 55.5 | 56.5 | -1.0 |
| Imports | 50.5 | 48.0 | +2.5 | Growing | From Contracting | 1 | 56.5 | 52.5 | +4.0 |
| Inventory Sentiment | 60.0 | 59.0 | +1.0 | Too High | Faster | 159 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Customers’ Inventories | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 43.5 | 39.0 | +4.5 |
* Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for Business Activity, New Orders, Prices and Employment. Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® data is seasonally adjusted for New Orders, Production, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories.
** Number of months moving in current direction.
