The U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that new orders for manufactured durable goods in April 2012 increased 0.2 percent, to $215.5 billion. However, excluding transportation, new orders fell 0.6 percent. Overall shipments rose 0.7 percent, while capital goods shipments decreased 1.4 percent. Unfilled orders declined 0.1 percent and inventories increased 0.3 percent in April.
Here is a link to the full report: Durable Goods Orders – April 2012.
Posted in Economy, Indicators
Tagged Durable Goods Orders, Economy, manufactured durable goods
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index was +0.11 in April, up from –0.44 in March. However, the overall trend is lower. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, ticked down to –0.06 in April from +0.02 in March, falling below zero for the first time since November 2011. April’s CFNAI-MA3
suggests that growth in national economic activity was near its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
Of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index, two contributed positively in April: production and income, and sales, orders, and inventories category. The employment category was neutral, and the consumption and housing category made a negative contribution.
Here is a link to the full report: Chicago Fed National Activity Index – April 2012.
The U.S. Department of Labor has announced that initial claims for unemployment insurance were 370,000 in the week ended May 12, 2012. Using the usual upward revision of the prior week’s figure, the DOL is able to state that claims were unchanged. However, the previous week was revised higher by 3,000 to 370,000. The four-week moving average was 375,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week.
The full DOL press release follows:
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending May 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, unchanged from the previous week’s revised figure of 370,000. The 4-week moving average was 375,000, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 379,750.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending May 5, unchanged from the prior week’s revised rate.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 5 was 3,265,000, an increase of 18,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,247,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,282,750, a decrease of 11,750 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,294,500.
UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 322,821 in the week ending May 12, a decrease of 18,259 from the previous week. There were 361,573 initial claims in the comparable week in 2011.
The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.5 percent during the week ending May 5, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 3,127,783, a decrease of 83,044 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 2.9 percent and the volume was 3,586,266.
The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending April 28 was 6,273,624, a decrease of 149,759 from the previous week.
Extended benefits were available in Alaska, California, Colorado, Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Florida, Idaho, Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, and West Virginia during the week ending April 28.
Initial claims for UI benefits by former Federal civilian employees totaled 1,197 in the week ending May 5, a decrease of 7 from the prior week. There were 2,606 initial claims by newly discharged veterans, an increase of 380 from the preceding week.
There were 17,695 former Federal civilian employees claiming UI benefits for the week ending April 28, a decrease of 1,814 from the previous week. Newly discharged veterans claiming benefits totaled 39,689, an increase of 7 from the prior week.
States reported 2,666,007 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending April 28, a decrease of 22,150 from the prior week. There were 3,468,979 claimants in the comparable week in 2011. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending April 28 were in Alaska (5.3), Puerto Rico (3.9), California (3.7), Pennsylvania (3.6), New Jersey (3.5), Oregon (3.5), Connecticut (3.3), Rhode Island (3.2), Illinois (3.1), Nevada (3.1), and Wisconsin (3.1).
The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending May 5 were in Missouri (+2,569), New York (+2,276), Pennsylvania (+1,674), California (+1,613), and Texas (+1,229), while the largest decreases were in Florida (-2,599), Indiana (-1,735), Connecticut (-1,038), New Hampshire (-836), and Massachusetts (-668).
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE DATA FOR REGULAR STATE PROGRAMS
| WEEK ENDING | Advance May 12 | May 5 | Change | April 28 | Prior Year1 |
|---|
| Initial Claims (SA) | 370,000 | 370,000 | 0 | 368,000 | 418,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims (NSA) | 322,821 | 341,080 | -18,259 | 333,476 | 361,573 |
| 4-Wk Moving Average (SA) | 375,000 | 379,750 | -4,750 | 384,250 | 434,500 |
| WEEK ENDING | Advance May 5 | April 28 | Change | April 21 | Prior Year1 |
|---|
| Ins. Unemployment (SA) | 3,265,000 | 3,247,000 | +18,000 | 3,290,000 | 3,747,000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ins. Unemployment (NSA) | 3,127,783 | 3,210,827 | -83,044 | 3,292,997 | 3,586,266 |
| 4-Wk Moving Average (SA) | 3,282,750 | 3,294,500 | -11,750 | 3,300,500 | 3,752,500 |
| Ins. Unemployment Rate (SA)2 | 2.6% | 2.6% | 0.0 | 2.6% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ins. Unemployment Rate (NSA)2 |
2.5% | 2.5% | 0.0 | 2.6% | 2.9% |
INITIAL CLAIMS FILED IN FEDERAL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)
| WEEK ENDING |
May 5 |
April 28 |
Change |
Prior Year1 |
|---|
| Federal Employees | 1,197 | 1,204 | -7 | 1,449 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newly Discharged Veterans | 2,606 | 2,226 | +380 | 2,470 |
PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)
| WEEK ENDING |
April 28 |
April 21 |
Change |
Prior Year1 |
| Regular State | 3,201,525 | 3,283,672 | -82,147 | 3,711,863 |
| Federal Employees (UCFE) | 17,695 | 19,509 | -1,814 | 26,495 |
| Newly Discharged Veterans (UCX) | 39,689 | 39,682 | +7 | 37,186 |
| EUC 2008 3 | 2,666,007 | 2,688,157 | -22,150 | 3,468,979 |
| Extended Benefits 4 | 304,755 | 350,579 | -45,824 | 640,042 |
| State Additional Benefits 5 | 7,079 | 5,745 | +1,334 | 28,542 |
| STC / Workshare 6 | 36,874 | 36,039 | +835 | 45,169 |
| TOTAL | 6,273,624 | 6,423,383 | -149,759 | 7,958,276 |
FOOTNOTES
SA – Seasonally Adjusted Data, NSA – Not Seasonally Adjusted Data
1 – Prior year is comparable to most recent data.
2 – Most recent week used covered employment of 127,048,587 as denominator.
3 – EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity. Tier-specific EUC data can be found here: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/persons.xls
4 – Information on the EB program can be found here: http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/extenben.asp
5 – Some states maintain additional benefit programs for those claimants who exhaust regular, extended and emergency benefits. Information on states that participate,
and the extent of benefits paid, can be found starting on page 4-5 of this link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf
6 – Information on STC/Worksharing can be found starting on page 4-9 of the following link: http://ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/pdf/uilawcompar/2010/special.pdf
UNADJUSTED INITIAL CLAIMS FOR WEEK ENDED 05/5/2012
STATES WITH A DECREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
| State | Change | State Supplied Comment | |
| FL | -2,599 | Fewer layoffs in the trade, agriculture, construction, retail, and service industries. | |
| IN | -1,735 | No comment. | |
| CT | -1,038 | No comment. |
STATES WITH AN INCREASE OF MORE THAN 1,000
| State | Change | State Supplied Comment | |
| MO | +2,569 | Layoffs in the manufacturing industry. | |
| NY | +2,276 | Layoffs in the construction, professional, scientific, technical service, and finance and insurance industries. | |
| PA | +1,674 | Layoffs in the construction, entertainment, lodging, and food service industries. | |
| CA | +1,613 | Layoffs in the service industries. | |
| TX | +1,229 | No comment. |
The U.S. Federal Reserve has reported that industrial production increased 1.1 percent in April. Output is now reported to have fallen 0.6 percent in March and to have moved up 0.4 percent in February; previously, industrial production was estimated to have been unchanged in both months. Manufacturing output increased 0.6 percent in April after having decreased 0.5 percent in March. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, which increased nearly 4 percent, manufacturing output moved up 0.3 percent, and output for all but a few major industries increased. Production at mines rose 1.6 percent, and the output of utilities gained 4.5 percent after unseasonably warm weather in the first quarter held down demand for heating. At 97.4 percent of its 2007 average, total industrial production for April was 5.2 percent above its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry moved up to 79.2 percent, a rate 3.1 percentage points above its level from a year earlier but 1.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2011) average.
For more information, please click on the Economic Growth Statistics page, then scroll down to the Industrial Production section.
The U.S. Department of Commerce has reported that March 2012 business inventories were $1,580.2 billion, up 0.3 percent from February 2012 and up 6.6 percent from March 2011. Sales were $1,241.0 billion, up 0.6 percent from February 2012 and up 5.8 percent from March 2011.
The total business inventories/sales ratio based on seasonally adjusted data at the end of March was 1.27. The March 2011 ratio was 1.26.
Here is a link to the full report: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales March 2012.
Posted in Economy, Indicators
Tagged Business Inventories, Economy, inventories, trade inventories
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Gregg D. Killoren
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