The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to a reading of -0.81 in September 2009, from -0.65 in August. CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity.
Three of the four broad categories of indicators made negative contributions to the index in September (employment, unemployment and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders and inventories), but the production and income category made a positive contribution for the third consecutive month. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, in September improved to a level greater than −0.7 for the first time since the early months of this recession. Please see the recent Chicago Fed Letter for further analysis of the CFNAI and business cycles.
Please click on the following link for the full release from the Chicago Fed: Chicago Fed National Activity Index.
Gregg D. Killoren
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